2024年上半年日本经济受到“能登半岛地震”和“车企丑闻”等因素影响，经济增速降为负值。从2024年下半年起，日本经济增速开始反弹。进入2025年，日本经济增速继续维持在近年来的相对高位。尽管特朗普政府的贸易政策对包括日本在内的全球经济、贸易造成扰动，但从2025年上半年数据看，日本经济所受影响暂时较为有限。2025年度日本财政预算较为收敛，日本央行的货币政策持续收紧，但都未对日本经济造成显著负面影响。国内消费和投资的坚挺是日本经济增速能够反弹并维持在相对高位的重要因素。不过，随着日本民众收入增速下滑和物价反弹，私人部门消费对日本经济的支撑作用将有可能减弱。美日贸易摩擦仍存变数，对日本经济增速做出正贡献的对外部门也将面临不确定性影响。
In the first half of 2024，Japan’s economy was affected by factors such as the “Noto Peninsula Earthquake” and “automaker scandals”，with its economic growth rate turning negative. Starting from the second half of 2024，Japan’s economic growth rate began to rebound. Entering 2025，Japan’s economic growth rate has continued to remain at a relatively high level in recent years. Although the trade policies of the Trump administration have caused disturbances to the global economy and trade，including Japan’s，data from the first half of 2025 shows that the impact on Japan’s economy has been relatively limited. Japan’s fiscal budget for fiscal 2025 is relatively restrictive，and the Bank of Japan has continued to tighten its monetary policy，yet neither has had a significant negative impact on Japan’s economy. The resilience of domestic consumption and investment in Japan are important factors behind the rebound and sustained relatively high level of the country’s economic growth rate. However，as the growth rate of Japanese people’s income slows down and prices rebound，the supporting role of private sector consumption in Japan’s economy may weaken. Due to the lingering uncertainties in U.S.-Japan trade frictions，the external sector，which has made a positive contribution to Japan’s economic growth rate，will also face uncertain impacts.
