2024年,广东外贸首次突破9万亿元,进出口总额为91126.4亿元,同比增长9.8%;实际利用外资1012.0亿元,同比下降36.4%;对外直接投资210.7亿美元,同比下降11.6%。受多重复杂的内外部环境影响,2025年,广东外贸走势具有较大不确定性,综合预测:进出口总额可能与2024年基本持平或出现小幅度的正增长,上半年贸易形势延续上年态势,下半年贸易形势比较严峻;加工贸易继续下滑,跨境电商与保税贸易保持一定增速;民营企业的贸易持续增长,外商投资企业的贸易继续低迷;对依赖第三方转口贸易形成的贸易型投资将减少,“走出去”遭遇美国高关税的阻碍。因此,建议广东构建对外贸易新安全格局,加快打造世界级物流枢纽,重构对外经贸长远优势,进一步优化营商环境,以此保证本省国际商务稳定有序发展。
Guangdong’s foreign trade first exceeds 9 trillion yuan in 2024,with a total import and export volume of 9112.64 billion yuan,an increase of 9.8% compared with the previous year;the actual utilization of foreign direct investment is 101.2 billion yuan,a year-on-year decrease of 36.4%;the amount of foreign direct investment is 21.07 billion US dollars,a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%. In the complex internal and external environment,the trend of Guangdong’s foreign trade in 2025 has significant uncertainty. Comprehensive prediction:the total import and export volume may remain basically the same as in 2024 or show a slight positive growth. The trade situation in the first half of the year will continue the trend of the previous year,and the trade situation in the second half of the year will be more serious. The processing trade continues to decline,while cross-border e-commerce and bonded trade maintain a certain growth rate. The trade of private enterprises continues to grow,while the trade of foreign-invested enterprises remains sluggish. Trade-based investments that rely on third-party transit trade will decrease,and investment abroad will face obstacles from high tariffs imposed by the United States. Therefore,it is recommended that Guangdong should establish a new security pattern for foreign trade;accelerate the construction of world-class logistics hubs;reconstruct the long-term advantages of foreign trade and economy;further optimize the business environment,to ensure the stable and orderly international business development of its own.