2024年德国经济连续第二年萎缩，实际GDP下降0.2%，制造业（-3.0%）和建筑业（-3.8%）持续低迷，信息通信业（+2.5%）、房地产业（+3.1%）成为少数增长领域。通胀率回落至2.2%，核心通胀率仍达3.0%，服务价格高企推升生活成本。外贸顺差收窄至2391亿欧元，对华出口下滑凸显全球供应链重构压力。私人消费微增0.3%，政府消费支撑经济增长，但固定资本形成下降2.8%反映出投资疲软。劳动力市场结构性矛盾加剧，就业人数创新高但失业率升至3.2%，制造业裁员与服务业扩张并存。公共财政赤字率维持2.6%，公共债务占GDP的比重为62.4%，能源转型成本、老龄化社保支出及债务制动规则制约财政弹性。2025年经济或进入弱复苏通道，预计增长0.5%～1.3%，货币政策宽松与基建投资回暖或成动力，但美国关税升级、能源价格黏性及制造业竞争力下滑构成下行风险。为提升经济韧性，德国政府在产业调整、税收结构优化及能源价格机制等方面推进了制度性完善。
In 2024，Germany’s economy shrank for the second consecutive year，with real GDP dropping by 0.2%. The manufacturing and construction sectors continued to struggle，falling by 3.0% and 3.8% respectively. Meanwhile，information and communication（+2.5%）and real estate（+3.1%）were among the few areas that grew. Inflation eased to 2.2%，but core inflation remained high at 3.0%，with high service prices increasing the cost of living. The foreign trade surplus narrowed to 239.1 billion euros，with a decline in exports to China highlighting the pressure of global supply chain restructuring. Private consumption rose slightly by 0.3%，and government consumption supported economic growth. However，the 2.8% drop in fixed capital formation showed weak investment. The labor market faced structural contradictions，with record-high employment but an unemployment rate rising to 3.2%，as job cuts in manufacturing occurred alongside the expansion of the service sector. The public-sector deficit was 2.6% of GDP，and government debt was 62.5% of GDP. Energy transition costs，the burden of an ageing population on social security and debt-brake rule limited fiscal flexibility. In 2025，the economy may enter a weak recovery phase. It is expected to grow between 0.5%-1.3%. Loose monetary policy and a recovery in infrastructure investment could be drivers of this recovery. However，risks include higher US tariffs，sticky energy prices and a decline in manufacturing competitiveness.
