本报告主要分析德国-中东欧汽车产业链的风险与“去风险”措施及其影响。本报告认为,德国乃至整个欧洲汽车制造业对“去风险”并不陌生。正是德国汽车制造业在20世纪70~90年代应对日本竞争时的“去风险”催生了德国-中东欧汽车产业链。当前欧洲汽车制造业再次陷入欧洲整体经济不振和市场需求萎靡的困境,并再次在绿色转型升级的进程中落后于竞争对手。对此,位于欧洲汽车制造业产业链不同位置的德国和中东欧国家分别采取差异化的“去风险”措施。受此影响,长期来看,德国对中东欧国家经济的影响力可能降低,而中日韩的影响力有望加强。对中国而言,德国和中东欧国家差异化的“去风险”措施反而提供了“出海”欧洲的有利机遇。
This report focuses on the risks and “de-risking” measures and their effects in the German-Central and Eastern European automobile industry chain. This report argues that “de-risking” is nothing new in Germany,or indeed the entire European automobile manufacturing business. The German-Central and Eastern European automotive industry chain emerged as a result of the German automotive manufacturing sector’s “de-risking” in reaction to Japanese competition in the 1970s and 1990s. At the moment,the industry chain is also facing internal risks from a slowing European economy and sluggish market demand,but the difference is that China has a significant first-mover advantage in the field of new energy vehicles,which is undoubtedly worse for Europe,which has already fallen behind in the transformation of new energy vehicles. In the face of the aforementioned internal and external risks,Germany and Central and Eastern European countries at various stages in the industry chain have implemented unique “de-risking” methods to protect their particular interests. In the long run,Germany’s economic influence over Central and Eastern European countries may decline,while China,Japan,and the Republic of Korea will grow. Various “de-risking” measures used by Germany and Central and Eastern European countries could be a beneficial opportunity for China to enter into European market.