当今世界,地缘政治动荡加剧,经济发展不确定性增强,各类安全威胁相互交织,世界格局正在以前所未有的方式加速演变。尽管中欧双边经贸合作展现出强劲韧性,但欧盟以“去风险”为主导的对华政策转向,以及美欧关系的变化,推高了中欧关系不确定性,使中欧关系处于竞争与合作深度交织的复杂调整期。特别是“特朗普2.0”,美国加大对欧洲施压力度,给中欧关系造成更大威胁。与此同时,高层对话机制持续为合作定调、经贸“压舱石”作用在产业链重构中凸显价值、人文交往不断拓宽对话空间等也使中欧合作成为大势所趋。这种“变”与“不变”的交叠,折射出中欧关系在全球化逆流中的独特韧性。展望未来,中欧关系将呈现“竞合双线强化”演进特征,中欧多边领域合作的全球战略意义日益凸显。欧洲或进一步以安全逻辑重塑贸易政策,对华贸易政策政治化、泛安全化倾向或将继续上升。尽管地缘政治博弈将持续施压双边互动,但双方在维护多边贸易体系、稳定全球供应链等领域存在利益交会点,这也为双方在绿色、数字等领域的合作留存战略空间。此外,中欧人文交流正从传统的文化互动向纵深领域拓展,其“软性”纽带作用有望部分对冲意识形态分歧的负面影响,从而在更深层次、更广领域发挥深化双边关系的抓手作用。
As global geopolitical turbulence intensifies,economic development uncertainty increases,and various security threats become intertwined,the world pattern is accelerating its evolution in an unprecedented way. Although China-EU bilateral economic and trade cooperation has shown strong resilience,the EU’s policy shift toward China dominated by “de-risking”,and the United States and the EU amidst the strengthening of US-EU linkage have jointly increased the uncertainty in China-EU relations,resulting in a complex adjustment period in which China-EU relations are deeply intertwined with competition and cooperation. Especially during the “Trump 2.0” era,the United States has increased pressure on Europe,posing a greater threat to China-EU relations. At the same time,the high-level dialogue mechanism continues to set the tone for cooperation,the role of economic and trade “ballast” highlights its value in the reconstruction of the industrial chain,and people-to-people exchanges continue to broaden the space for dialogue,making China-EU cooperation a general trend. This overlap of “change” and “unchange” reflects the unique resilience of China-EU relations in the countercurrent of globalization. Looking forward to the future,China-EU relations will show the evolutionary characteristics of “intensified competition and cooperation”,and the global strategic significance of China-EU cooperation in multilateral fields will become increasingly prominent. Europe may further reshape its trade policy based on security logic,and the tendency towards politicization and pan-securityization of its trade policy toward China may continue to increase. Although the geopolitical game will continue to put pressure on bilateral interactions,the two sides have convergence of interests in maintaining the multilateral trading system and stabilizing the global supply chain,which also leaves strategic space for China-EU cooperation in green,digital and other fields. In addition,China-Europe people-to-people exchanges are expanding from traditional cultural interactions to in-depth areas,and their “soft” bond role is expected to partially offset the negative impact of ideological differences,thereby playing a role as a tool for deepening China-Europe relations at a deeper level and in a wider range of areas.
| Keywords: | China-EU RelationsEU’s Policy Framework towards China50th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between China and the EUTrump 2.0 |