2024~2025年,欧洲因俄乌冲突地缘危机与美国大选而面临外交关键节点。马克龙提出“战略觉醒”,呼吁欧洲摆脱对美战略依赖,增强国防与经济实力。欧盟委员会主席宣布“重新武装欧洲”计划,迈出战略自主步伐。欧美关系领域,在“特朗普2.0”冲击下,出现美欧重现关税战、美国退出《巴黎协定》等“老问题”,新增价值观话语权争夺等矛盾,美国战略重点转移、政治极化及特朗普对普京的亲近,使跨大西洋关系产生裂痕,欧洲开始觉醒,减少对美依赖。欧俄关系呈现“双轨道”,欧盟主流与部分成员国、不同政治势力对俄政策有别。地缘政治博弈加剧,欧盟从多方面与俄竞争,且欧洲难以摆脱对俄能源依赖,未来欧俄关系走向受乌克兰问题等影响。欧日关系持续走实,军事合作加强,经济安全议题凸显,“双转型”进程稳步推进,双方在多领域合作加深,但也面临战略重心差异等挑战,且合作有针对第三国的倾向。
In 2024-2025,Europe is at a crucial diplomatic juncture due to the geopolitical crisis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US presidential election. Macron proposed “strategic wake-up”,calling on Europe to get rid of its strategic dependence on the US and enhance its national defense and economic strength. The President of the European Commission announced the “Re Arm Europe” plan,taking steps towards strategic autonomy. In the field of EU-US relations,under the impact of “Trump 2.0”,old issues such as tariff wars and US exit the Paris Agreement between the US and Europe have re-emerged,and new contradictions such as the competition for the discourse power of values have been added. The shift of the US strategic focus,political polarization,and Trump’s closeness to Putin have caused the transatlantic relationship to split,and Europe has begun to wake up and reduce its dependence on the US. The EU-Russia relationship presents a “double track”,with differences in the policies towards Russia between the mainstream of the EU and some member states,as well as different political forces. Geopolitical games have intensified. The EU competes with Russia in many aspects,and Europe is difficult to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia. The future direction of the EU-Russia relationship is affected by issues such as the Ukraine issue. The EU-Japan relationship has continued to solidify,with enhanced military cooperation and prominent economic security issues. The “double transformation” process has been steadily advanced,and the two sides have deepened cooperation in many fields. However,it also faces challenges such as differences in strategic focus,and the cooperation has a tendency to target third countries.
| Keywords: | EU-US RelationsEU-Russia RelationsEuropean Foreign RelationsGeopolitical GamesEU-Japan Relations |