2024年，全球地缘政治形势更趋紧张复杂，欧洲经济继续在内外诸多不利条件下负重前行。由于能源价格相对平稳，加之此前欧洲央行连续加息抑制总需求的效应逐步显现，2024年全年欧盟和欧元区的通胀率均降至3%之下，但是整体价格水平仍处于历史高位。虽然自下半年起欧洲央行开始通过降息调整货币政策，但是至年底欧元区利率仍处于较高水平。与此同时，欧盟整体贸易条件有所改善，但净出口对经济增长的拉动作用仍未恢复至2020年的水平。在此背景下，2024年欧盟与欧元区经济增长率较2023年仅有小幅提升，整体上仍处于低迷状态。整体而言，2024年欧洲经济仍未走出“三高一低”的困境，即高物价、高利率、高债务和低增长。此外，2024年，“下一代欧盟”复苏基金的落实、欧盟推进绿色转型和数字转型的进展以及欧盟发布的“经济安全一揽子计划”也值得关注。最后，本报告还对2025年欧洲经济前景做了展望。
In 2024，the global geopolitical situation becomes more complex and intense，and the European economy continues to move forward under many unfavorable conditions both domestically and internationally. Due to the relatively stable energy prices and the gradual manifestation of the effect of the European Central Bank’s consecutive interest rate hikes on suppressing aggregate demand，the inflation rates in both the EU and the euro area have dropped below 3% for the whole year of 2024，but the overall price level remains at a historical high. Although the European Central Bank has been adjusting monetary policy through interest rate cuts since the second half of the year，euro area interest rates remain at a relatively high level by the end of the year. At the same time，the overall trade terms of the EU have improved，but the driving effect of net exports on economic growth has not yet recovered to the level of 2020. In this context，the economic growth of the EU and the euro area in 2024 has only slightly improved compared to 2023 and overall is still in a sluggish state. Overall，the European economy has not yet get rid of the situation of “three highs and one low” in 2024，namely high prices，high interest rates，high debts，and low economic growth. In addition，in 2024，the implementation of the NextGenerationEU recovery fund，the progress of the EU’s promotion of green transition and digital transition，and the economic security package plan released by the EU are also worth paying attention to. Finally，this report also provides an outlook on the European economy for 2025.
