2024年欧洲在困境和变革之间谋求自主之道。在全球经济复苏背景下,欧洲经济呈转好态势,通胀、利率与债务整体降温,全球贸易逐步恢复,但地缘政治紧张、全球贸易冲突给欧洲经济发展带来外部挑战,欧盟国家经济发展分化态势明显,结构性张力仍在。在欧洲议会选举和多个成员国选举后,欧洲政治加速分化重组,右翼势力抬头,政治碎片化加剧。在外交上,乌克兰危机和巴以冲突持续,外溢效应对欧盟冲击较大,美国大选加速美欧关系紧张,引发大国关系新的调整和变动。欧洲议会选举后,欧盟产生新一届领导集体,将提升经济竞争力和强化防务能力作为执政目标,并构筑极右翼势力“防火墙”,确保主流政治势力稳固执政。在特朗普上台、美欧关系裂痕加深背景下,欧盟2025年发展存在诸多变数,美欧关税战将恶化欧盟发展外部环境,防务开支激增将加大成员国经济负担。2025年是中国-欧盟建交50周年,秉持初心、继往开来、深化对华合作,是欧盟探索自主发展道路的重要途径。
In 2024,Europe sought a path to autonomy between crisis and transformation. Amidst the backdrop of a global economic recovery,the European economy showed signs of improvement,with inflation,interest rates,and debt cooling overall,and global trade gradually rebounding. However,geopolitical tensions and global trade conflicts posed external challenges to Europe’s economic development. Economic disparities among EU member states became more pronounced,and structural tensions persisted. Following the European Parliament elections and multiple national elections,European politics underwent accelerated fragmentation and realignment,with the rise of right-wing forces exacerbating political fragmentation. In terms of foreign affairs,the ongoing Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict had significant spillover effects,exerting considerable pressure on the EU. Meanwhile,the U.S. presidential election heightened tensions in transatlantic relations,triggering new adjustments and shifts in major power relations.After the European Parliament elections,the EU formed a new leadership team,setting economic competitiveness and defense capability enhancement as key governance priorities while constructing a firewall against far-right forces to ensure the stability of mainstream political leadership. Against the backdrop of Trump’s return to office and deepening U.S.-EU rifts,the EU’s development in 2025 remains highly uncertain. A potential U.S.-EU tariff war could further deteriorate Europe’s external environment,while soaring defense expenditures would place additional economic burdens on member states. 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic relations. Upholding the original aspirations,building on past achievements,and deepening cooperation with China represent crucial avenues for the EU to explore an autonomous development path.
| Keywords: | Ukraine CrisisEconomic CompetitivenessU.S.-EU RelationsEU-China relationsEuropean Right Wing |