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粤港澳大湾区支出法地区生产总值构成项测算及需求结构变动分析报告

文章摘要

2024年中央经济工作会议提出,要大力提振消费,提高投资效益,全方位扩大国内需求。粤港澳大湾区作为全国重要经济增长极,是扩大内需的重要战略支点,研究其需求规模与结构变化具有重要现实意义。本报告基于中国国民经济核算体系和现有数据基础,测算珠三角九市2018~2023年支出法地区生产总值构成项中的居民消费支出、政府消费支出、固定资本形成总额和存货变动,将其与经过汇率调整的香港和澳门支出法本地生产总值相应构成项进行汇总,并在假定支出法地区生产总值与生产法地区生产总值相等的基础上,从后者减去前述构成项,获得粤港澳大湾区货物和服务净流出,进而得到2012~2023年粤港澳大湾区支出法地区生产总值及其构成项数据序列。测算结果显示,居民消费需求是经济增长的主要动力,政府消费支出稳定经济增长的作用增强,固定资本形成需求持续增长,但也存在居民消费支出占比整体下降、固定资本形成需求边际贡献降低、货物和服务净流出波动性较强等问题,应通过优化消费环境、强化有效投资、优化贸易结构等措施,促进粤港澳大湾区经济高质量发展。

Abstract

The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference proposed the need to vigorously boost consumption,enhance investment returns,and comprehensively expand domestic demand. As a crucial economic growth pole in China,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area serves as an important strategic fulcrum for expanding domestic demand,making the study of changes in its demand scale and structure of great practical significance. This report,based on China’s national economic accounting system and existing data,calculates the household consumption expenditure,government consumption expenditure,gross fixed capital formation,and inventory changes in the expenditure-based regional GDP of the nine Pearl River Delta cities from 2018 to 2023. These items are aggregated with the corresponding components of the expenditure-based local GDP of Hong Kong and Macao after exchange rate adjustment. On the premise that the expenditure-based regional GDP is assumed to be equal to the production-based regional GDP,the net outflow of goods and services in the GBA is derived by subtracting the aforementioned components from the latter,thereby obtaining the time-series data of the expenditure-based regional GDP and its components in the GBA from 2012 to 2023. The measurement results show that household consumption demand is the main driving force for economic growth,and the role of government consumption expenditure in stabilizing economic growth has been enhanced. Gross fixed capital formation demand has continued to grow,but issues such as the overall decline in the proportion of household consumption demand,the weakening marginal contribution of fixed capital formation demand,and large fluctuations in the net outflow of goods and services also exist. Measures should be taken to optimize the consumption environment,strengthen effective investment,and improve the trade structure to promote the high-quality economic development of the GBA.

作者简介
李德洗:李德洗,管理学博士,应用经济学博士后,高级统计师,广东财经大学中国数据研究院院长,主要研究方向为经济统计、宏观经济、数字经济。
许宪春:许宪春,经济学博士,高级统计师,广东财经大学中国数据研究院项目顾问,主要研究方向为国民经济核算、中国政府统计、宏观经济。
李慧清:李慧清,经济学博士,硕士研究生导师,广东财经大学工商管理学院讲师,主要研究方向为创新创业、乡村振兴。
王方方:王方方,经济学博士,教授,博士生导师,广东财经大学数字经济学院院长,广东省哲学社会科学实验室——广东财经大学生态环境资源与经济社会系统协同演化重点实验室执行主任,主要研究方向为数字经济、中观经济、区域经济。