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2023年巴尔干地区政治形势

文章摘要

自俄乌冲突爆发以来,位于乌克兰周边的巴尔干地区因其地缘政治地位突出,所受的影响越来越大。2023年,巴尔干国家的内政仍然与国际政治紧密联动。由于担心冲突风险外溢,欧盟2023年继续主导科索沃问题谈判,但这并未取得稳定局势的效果,长期以来作为地区热点的科索沃问题持续造成紧张局势,而另一个传统地区热点波黑塞族共和国的离心行动也在加强。虽然克罗地亚加入了申根区和欧元区,但是北马其顿入盟进程陷入停滞,黑山失去了对关键改革的关注。在欧洲政治经济格局重塑的同时,巴尔干国家政坛也在不断上演新的风波,体现为“塞尔维亚反对暴力”运动登上舞台、黑山政治悄然发生转变、保加利亚非联盟政府启动轮流执政,以及罗马尼亚极右翼政党崛起等。

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,its impact on the Balkans,which has a prominent geopolitical position,has been growing. In 2023,the domestic politics of Balkan countries was still closely linked with international politics. Concerned about the spillover effect of the potential conflict in Kosovo,the European Union continued to lead negotiations on the status of Kosovo between Belgrade and Pristina,but the talks failed to stabilize the situation on the ground with tensions growing in Kosovo which has long been a conflict hotspot in the region. In the meantime,the Republika Srpska of Bosnia and Herzegovina has intensified its struggle to achieve independence from the country. While Croatia has joined the Schengen area and eurozone,North Macedonia’s accession process has stalled and Montenegro has lost focus on key reforms. While the political and economic pattern was being reshaped in Europe,the politics of Balkan countries was also undergoing new turbulences,with the emergence of the “Serbia Against Violence” movement,political shift in Montenegro,the new coalition government in Bulgaria,and the rise of the far-right in Romania in the spotlight.

作者简介
李建军:李建军,博士,首都师范大学国别区域研究院、历史学院副研究员,主要研究方向为巴尔干现代史、塞尔维亚。