马来西亚2022年第15届大选中出现“悬峙议会”,三大政治联盟国阵、希盟、国盟无一赢得国会下议院过半数议席以执政中央政府。在最高元首的御令下,以政治稳定为大前提,国阵和希盟组建联合政府。团结政府在执政一周年后,虽然推出了新的经济政策,如2023年公共财政和财政责任法案、渐进式薪金白皮书等,但政府并没有对整体国家经济提出新的发展方向和改革方针,更多的是落实新税制,如征收低价商品税、高价商品税、资本利得税,调高服务税等,并通过使津贴合理化,开源节流,补充国库。整体上,马来西亚的宏观经济表现在2023年依然达标,包括经济增长、失业率、外国投资等方面,但团结政府在经济结构转型方面的工作始终缺乏进展。总理安瓦尔虽然成功地引进巨额潜在投资,但大部分投资至今仍未落实。在政治改革方面,为了争取更多的马来选民选票,团结政府执政后的整体政策方向有明显的右倾迹象。关于体制改革、废除苛刻法律、良好治理、消除腐败等政治改革的承诺在选后也尚未兑现。马来西亚无论是政治还是经济都需要结构性的大刀阔斧式改革,而团结政府是否能在任期内有效推动政治改革和经济转型,将会对希盟第16届全国大选的成绩产生影响。
In the 2022 Malaysian General Election,no coalition,Barisan Nasional(BN),Pakatan Harapan(PH),or Perikatan Nasional(PN)secured a majority,leading BN and PH to form a unity government for political stability under the Agong’s decree. One year in,despite new policies like the 2023 Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act and a progressive wage white paper,the government didn’t propose new economic directions. Instead,it implemented new taxes such as the Low-Value Goods Tax,High-Value Goods Tax,and Capital Gains Tax,and increased the service tax to 8%,while rationalizing subsidies to boost revenue. Malaysia’s 2023 macroeconomic performance was satisfactory in growth,unemployment,and foreign investment,but the unity government lagged in economic structural transformation. Prime Minister Anwar attracted significant potential investments,but most haven’t materialized. Politically,the unity government shifted right to gain Malay votes,failing to deliver on promises of institutional reforms,good governance,and eradicating corruption. The unity government’s ability to promote reforms will be crucial for Pakatan Harapan’s future performance.