在区域经济一体化和国际分工专业化的大趋势下,港口物流与对外贸易两者协调发展变得越来越迫切。首先,本文构建相关评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定了广西港口物流与对外贸易指标权重;其次,运用综合指数法和灰色关联度分析方法,深入剖析了各指标及综合指数之间的关联程度;再次,采用修正的耦合协调度模型定量分析广西港口物流与对外贸易的耦合协调度;最后,运用障碍度模型识别了影响两者协调发展的主要障碍因子。结果表明:2006~2022年,广西港口物流和对外贸易的发展态势呈现波动上升的特点。灰色关联度分析显示,广西港口物流和对外贸易两个系统的灰色关联度在0.6~0.9,表明两者之间存在强相关关系。此外,“港口物流—对外贸易”的耦合协调度经历了从失调到勉强协调、初级协调再到良好协调的转变过程,但仍存在较大的优化空间。障碍因子分析显示,港口货物吞吐量增速、港口集装箱增速和固定电话年末户数对广西“港口物流—对外贸易”未来的协调发展影响较大。
Under the major trends of regional economic integration and specialization of international division of labor,the coordinated development of port logistics and foreign trade has become increasingly crucial. By establishing a relevant evaluation indicator system,this study first determines the weights of indicators for Guangxi’s port logistics and foreign trade using the weighting method. Secondly,it employs the comprehensive index method and grey relational analysis to deeply explore the degree of correlation between various indicators and comprehensive indices. Thirdly,a revised coupling coordination degree model is adopted to quantitatively analyze the coupling coordination degree between Guangxi’s port logistics and foreign trade. Finally,the obstacle degree model is utilized to identify the main obstacle factors affecting their coordinated development. The results indicate that during the period from 2006 to 2022,the development trend of Guangxi’s port logistics and foreign trade exhibited fluctuating upward characteristics. The grey relational analysis shows that the grey relational degree between Guangxi’s port logistics and foreign trade systems falls within the range of 0.6 to 0.9,indicating a strong correlation between the two. Furthermore,the coupling coordination degree of the “port logistics-foreign trade” system has undergone a transition from imbalance to reluctant coordination,primary coordination,and finally good coordination,but there is still considerable room for optimization. The obstacle factor analysis reveals that factors such as the growth rate of port cargo throughput,the growth rate of port containers,and the number of fixed-line telephone subscriptions at the end of the year have a significant impact on the future coordinated development of Guangxi’s “port logistics-foreign trade” system.