缅甸问题2023年总体处于一种各方“观望与进击并存”态势。缅甸国内“三方博弈”格局正逐渐形成，东盟的“安静外交”未获民盟方全面支持，各大国“涉缅博弈”策略不断推陈出新。东盟斡旋面临“政策客体”更趋多元、“内部分歧”难以弥合、“外部信号”错综复杂等挑战。未来各方需给予更大诚意、妥协和智慧推动事态良性发展。
The Myanmar issue in 2023 has generally been in a situation that all parties were “observing and attacking at the same time”. The domestic “tripartite game” pattern in Myanmar was gradually taking shape，ASEAN’s “quiet diplomacy” has not received full support from the National League for Democracy（NLD），and major powers have continuously introduced new strategies in their “Myanmar-related games”. ASEAN’s mediation efforts were facing challenges such as “policy objects” becoming more diverse，“internal differences” being difficult to bridge，and “external signals” being complex. In the foreseeable future，all parties need to show greater sincerity，compromise and wisdom to promote the positive development of the situation.
