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阿根廷:政治格局剧变,未来前景不明(2023~2024)

文章摘要

2023年,阿根廷面临多重困难,包括经济萎缩、贫困加剧、通货膨胀率创历史新高以及政治格局突变带来的巨大不确定性。政治方面,各政治力量重新分化组合,形势更加复杂。祖国联盟因经济衰退和高通胀未实现连任,极右翼的自由前进运动在第二轮投票中因获共谋变革联盟的支持而胜选,但后者因此分裂。经济方面,复苏进程骤停并转入衰退,财政赤字巨大、本币急剧贬值、外债增加和通货膨胀率屡创新高。受此影响,阿根廷减贫形势恶化,贫困率和极端贫困率均上升。尽管劳动力市场恢复,就业率上升,失业率小幅下降,但非正规就业问题仍然突出。对外关系方面,费尔南德斯政府继续秉持平衡、多元和务实的外交传统,加强与巴西的战略联盟,推动拉美一体化和自主自强,同时维持与美国和西方的良好关系。然而,米莱新政府上台后,外交政策急剧转向,不仅抛弃阿根廷的传统外交路线,全面倒向美国,还频频与巴西等拉美左翼国家发生冲突。受此影响,中国和阿根廷的关系也面临挑战。

Abstract

In 2023,Argentina faces multiple difficulties:economy is shrinking,poverty is worsening,inflation is increasing to higher levels while general elections are remapping political landscape and bring about a high uncertainty for Argentina’s future. Politically,the political situation has become more complex as the political forces have re-fractured and regrouped. Unión por la Patria failed to get re-elected due to the increasingly deteriorating economy and inflation,while the far-right La Libertad Avanza(LLA)won the presidential run-off with the great support of Juntos por el Cambio(JxC)which in turn led to its internal split. Economically,the economic growth stalled and turned into contraction. Fiscal deficits are higher,Argentine peso is depreciating sharply,external debt as well as inflation is also increasing rapidly. As a result,Argentina’s poverty has continued to deteriorate,with both poverty and indigence rising. The labor market has been revitalized,with a rise in employment and a small decline in unemployment,although informal employment is still a serious problem to deal with. In terms of foreign relations,the President Alberto Fernández continued its tradition of well-balanced,diversified and pragmatism-oriented diplomacy,re-strengthening the strategic alliance with Brazil and promoting regional integration especially in CELAC,UNASUR and MERCOSUR,while maintaining good relations with the United States and the West. However,with the inauguration of new president Javier Milei,Argentina’s foreign policy took a drastic turn based on the line of ideology,not only abandoning its diplomatic tradition and turning fully toward the United States,but also frequently clashing with left-wing governments in Latin America,especially with its neighboring Brazil. As a result,China-Argentina relations are also facing challenges in the future.

作者简介
郭存海:郭存海,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所研究员,拉美社会文化研究室主任,阿根廷研究中心执行主任,主要研究方向为拉美社会和文化及阿根廷。