2023年,由于高利率滞后影响的继续渗透,加拿大经济艰难复苏,增长动力不足,通胀压力犹存。2023年加拿大实际GDP比上年增长1.24%,是2016年以来的最低增速。进口和家庭支出的增长支撑了总体增长,而商业投资的减少和库存积累速度的放缓则拖累了增长。从季度走势来看,2023年加拿大经济呈现出先抑后扬的“U”形态势。第一季度经济经历强劲增长后,受到利率上升、通胀高企、自然灾害和罢工等多重因素影响,第二、三季度经济增速持续下滑,直至第四季度出口回暖,才扭转了下行趋势。这表明内外部风险因素仍然突出,经济企稳基础尚不牢固。尽管加拿大联邦政府已经采取了一系列激励政策,加拿大经济在未来依然面临着不小的挑战。首先,高通货膨胀导致的食品和租房价格上涨给普通家庭带来不小的压力,且高通货膨胀也造成了诸多企业经营成本的提升;其次,长期低迷的企业劳动生产率也将给经济带来负面影响。2024年将成为未来十年加拿大经济发展的重要转折点。
2023 was supposed to be the year when the impact of the epidemic narrowed and economic order returned,but the Canadian economy struggled to recover as the lagged effects of high interest rates continued to permeate the economy,with insufficient growth momentum and lingering inflationary pressures. Canadian real GDP grew by 1.24% in 2023 compared to the previous year,the lowest growth rate since 2016. Increases in imports and household spending supported overall growth,while lower business investment and a slower rate of inventory accumulation weighed on growth. In terms of quarterly trends,the Canadian economy followed a U-shaped pattern in 2023. After strong growth in the first quarter,economic growth continued to decline in the second and third quarters due to a combination of rising interest rates,high inflation,natural disasters and strikes,until exports rebounded in the fourth quarter,Which veversed the downward trend. This indicates that internal and external risk factors remain prominent and that the foundation for economic stabilization is not yet solid. Although the Canadian federal government has adopted a series of incentive policies,the Canadian economy still faces considerable challenges in the future. Firstly,high inflation is putting pressure on the average family in terms of food and rental prices,and causing many businesses to increase their operating costs. Secondly,long-term low labor productivity will also have a negative impact on the economy. 2024 will be an important turning point for Canada’s economic development in the next decade.