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2023年的美国经济:超预期强劲增长 高通胀迅速回落

文章摘要

2023年美国经济创造了“奇迹”,不仅没有陷入衰退,反而实现了超预期强劲增长,制造业投资亮眼,失业率仍处低位,高通胀迅速回落,金融市场惊奇连连,年终强势收官。究其原因,一是实际个人可支配收入增长、超额储蓄、财富效应和向疫情前趋势回归的服务消费支撑了消费的稳健增长;二是企业自有资金相对充足,5.25%~5.5%的联邦基金利率并未对企业投资造成较大负面影响;三是供应链紧张缓解,通胀迅速回落,以失业率大幅上升为代价遏制通胀的必要性降低,失业率得以继续保持在相对低位;四是美国政府对银行危机进行了及时有效的干预。不过,选民对此“奇迹”并不买账,主要原因在于他们对经济形势的感知与经济表现存在差距。展望2024年的美国经济,其增长基础仍然比较扎实强健,保持2.2%左右增速的可能性很大。

Abstract

The U.S. economy created a “miracle” in 2023. Not only did not fall into recession,but grew faster and stronger than expected growth. Manufacturing investment was impressive,unemployment remained its lowest level,high inflation fell rapidly,financial markets were full of surprises and the year-end was strong. The reasons are as follows:first,the growth of real personal disposable income,the withdrawal of excess savings,the impact of wealth effect,and the continued recovery of service consumption returning to pre-epidemic trends supported the steady growth of consumption;second,the enterprise’s own funds are relatively sufficient,and the increase of the target fed funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5% did not have a significant negative impact on corporate investments;third,supply chain tensions eased,inflation fell rapidly,and it left enough room to control inflation without a sharp increase in unemployment,enabling unemployment to remain at a relatively low level;fourth,the U.S. government responded to the banking crisis timely and effectively. There are some alternative explanations of so impressive economic data in 2023,which believe that the U.S. economic data is “inaccurate”,“distorted” and “fake”,but its convincing is not strong.. However,But voters did not buy the “miracle”,mainly because they used different benchmarks to measure the gap between their perception of the economic situation and economic performance. Looking ahead to the U.S. economy outlook for 2024,its GDP growth rate is very likely expected to slow down to 2.2% with its solid and strong economic fundamentals.

作者简介
罗振兴:罗振兴,中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员、经济研究室主任,主要研究领域为分工理论、美国经济、美国能源、中美经贸关系。