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迷惘时代:美国现实和信念的背离与重契

文章摘要

美国在根本制度未变的前提下,试遍各种路径未能找到克服治理困境的出路,多方面失去自信心和方向感,步入了迷惘时代,2023年则愈演愈烈。政治上,宪政法治信念受到阴谋论言行和司法政治化冲击,美式民主信念受到政治不妥协、代际更迭和选民抉择困难的冲击,联邦体系优越性信念受到执法权争执、立法权争执和州际争执的冲击,国际霸权信念受到霸权地位焦虑和同盟体系效能下降的冲击。经济上,美式市场主导的资本主义经济模式受到拜登经济学理念和诸多非市场化微观规制政策的冲击,宏观政策体系的有效性信念受到金融体系困局和财税体系难题的冲击。社会上,对所谓“山巅之城”的信念受到社会道德丑闻、公共安全恶化和阶层分化加剧的冲击,对“后族群”时代国族发展的信念受到国族成分变化和族群冲突加剧的冲击。美国步入迷惘时代的根本原因在于经济变迁过于剧烈,并通过现存政治社会机制导致多方面的剧烈社会变迁,与传统信念严重背离。走出迷惘时代需要良好的经济社会基本要素,通过经济发展或政治妥协加以实现,使现实与信念重新契合。

Abstract

Losing self-confidence and direction in multiple aspects for failure to find a way out after trying every approach,given adherence to fundamental institutions,against predicaments in governance,the United States stepped into a lost age which become increasingly fierce in 2023. Politically,conventional beliefs in constitutionalism and rule of law are challenged by conspiracy theories and judicial politicization;beliefs in democracy are challenged by Uncompromising politics,generational shift and the difficulty of voters’ choice;beliefs in the advantages of federalism are challenged by executive power contention,legislative power contention,and interstate rivalry;beliefs in U.S. international hegemony are challenged by anxieties about its hegemonic status and declining effectiveness of the alliance systems. Economically,beliefs in the market-led model of capitalism are challenged by Bidenomics and regulatory policies;beliefs in the effectiveness of the U.S. macroeconomic systems are challenged by the difficulties of the financial system and the fiscal system. Socially,beliefs in the “City on a Hill” are challenged by ethical scandals,public safety deterioration,and intensified social stratification;beliefs in “post-ethnic” national development are challenged by ratio changes in national composition and intensification in ethnic conflicts. The preeminent reason for U.S. to enter a lost age is the excessive economic change,which causes additional excessive multifaceted social changes through existing political and social mechanisms,which is seriously deviated from traditional beliefs. Getting out of the lost age requires good economic and social fundamentals,achieved through economic development or political compromise,to bring reality and faith back together.

作者简介
王欢:王欢,中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员,美国政治研究室主任,主要研究领域为美国政治、集团政治与社会秩序、内生制度。