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2021~2022年叙利亚政治形势与和解进程

文章摘要

2021~2022年叙利亚的政治局势仍处于“多方割据”的僵持局面,虽然暴力事件有所减少,但人道主义援助面临巨大挑战。巴沙尔·阿萨德连任叙利亚总统,对叙利亚和解进程产生双重影响。阿斯塔纳和谈进程与叙利亚宪法委员会按部就班开展工作,但收效甚微。另外,叙利亚的安全形势亦受挑战:叙西北部和东北部的冲突线仍在继续发生小规模冲突,但战事总体呈冻结状态;叙南部反对派抗议活动升级,骚乱不断;叙中部“伊斯兰国”强势宣告其力量存在,恐怖袭击频发。持续存在的制裁、经济危机、新冠疫情大流行以及大国角力等因素影响着叙利亚政治与和解进程的走势。

Abstract

From 2021 to 2022,the political situation in Syria is stuck in the rut caused by the multi-party separatism. Although the violence has decreased,the humanitarian disaster has reached a record high. The re-election of Bashar al-Assad as Syrian president has a dual influence on the Syrian reconciliation process,while the Astana process and the Syrian Constitutional Council have made incremental progress with limited success. Despite the ongoing local conflicts,the front line in northern Syria has been largely frozen. The opposition in southern Syria has been ramping up their protests and riots. ISIS has unequivocally acknowledged its armed existence in central Syria,where there have been continual terrorist attacks. Continuing sanctions,the economic crisis and the COVID-19,as well as ongoing great power rivalries,are influencing the course of Syria’s politics and reconciliation process.

作者简介
马帅:马帅,历史学博士,长江师范学院政治与历史学院讲师,西北大学叙利亚研究中心特约研究员。
赵悠然:赵悠然,南开大学历史学院2020级博士研究生。