经历了2021~2024年的深度调整,中国房地产市场已具备止跌回稳的基础。尽管如此,仍有一些因素对市场产生抑制作用,如人口、库存结构、现金流等。中国房地产市场在筑底过程中将呈现更加明显的地域性和差异化趋势,可能沿着“核心城市优质房产价格企稳—一线、二线城市核心区域楼市企稳—全国经济基本面持续回升向好—全国楼市销售端企稳—地产投资端企稳”的路径发展,重点城市的核心区域有望在2025年率先止跌,部分优质资产价格甚至会出现小幅反弹。本报告从住宅类不动产、商业地产项目等角度提出投资建议,以期为投资者提供决策参考。
After more than three years of in-depth adjustment,the real estate market has been fully adjusted both in terms of duration and extent. Meanwhile,referring to the situations of other economies also indicates that the current market has passed the period of sharp adjustment and has the foundation to stabilize. Although,there are still many factors that suppress the market,making it difficult for the market to fully stabilize in the short term. Therefore,the “long-term crisis theory” and the “quick bottoming theory” frequently seen in the market cannot accurately reflect the objective laws and actual situation. We judge that the market may evolve along the path of “stabilization of high-quality property prices in core cities-stabilization of the real estate market in core areas of key cities-stabilization of the national economic fundamentals-stabilization of the sales end of the national property market-stabilization of the real estate investment end”. The core areas of key cities are expected to stop falling first in 2025,and the prices of high-quality assets there may even experience a slight rebound.