在国际地缘政治和经济关系日趋紧张,逆境事件密集发生的背景下,中非贸易合作展现出强大的韧性。以新冠疫情这一重大突发公共卫生事件为例,结合经济韧性理论,本文利用2021年1—12月非洲18个样本国家与中国的贸易数据,从抵抗性和恢复性两个维度探讨了中非贸易韧性绩效,研究发现中非贸易韧性存在明显的空间分异现象,且贸易抵抗性较贸易恢复性呈现更大的空间差异。其中,非洲国家贸易对象集中度、物流发展水平以及医疗发展水平对中非贸易抵抗性解释度最高;对贸易恢复性最具解释力的因素是非洲国家外贸依存度、疫情严峻程度、经济发展水平。非洲国家互联网的普及水平对贸易抵抗性和恢复性均具有较大的影响。本文丰富了贸易韧性领域的研究,也为新形势下中非深化经贸合作提供了政策启示。
Amid escalating international geopolitical and economic tensions and frequent adverse events,China-Africa trade cooperation has demonstrated strong resilience. This paper analyzes trade data from January to December 2021 between China and 18 African countries,exploring the resilience of China-Africa trade in terms of resistance and recoverability. The study identifies significant spatial variations in trade resilience,with greater disparities in trade resistance than in recoverability across different regions. Key factors contributing to trade resistance include the concentration of trade partners,the level of logistics development,and the level of medical development in African countries. Conversely,the degree of dependence on foreign trade,the severity of the pandemic,and the economic development level of these countries are the most significant factors affecting trade recoverability. Additionally,the prevalence of the internet in African countries significantly influences both aspects of trade resilience. This research contributes to the field of trade resilience and offers policy insights for enhancing economic and trade cooperation between China and Africa under new circumstances.
| Keywords: | InfrastructureTrade OpennessTrade ResilienceSpatial VariationsChina-Africa Trade Cooperation |