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2023年俄罗斯财政形势与政策:结构调整与未来展望

文章摘要

2023年俄罗斯财政经济运行仍然高度承压:在收入端,西方油气制裁生效导致俄罗斯油气收入急剧下滑,至今仍未能恢复至制裁前水平,但得益于国内经济强势复苏,非油气收入扭转了自2022年以来的颓势,实现大幅增长,部分弥补了油气收入的下滑。在支出端,除国防和民生支出保持增长外,国民经济支出达到历史新高,有利于推动经济结构转型、形成新的经济增长模式。当前,俄罗斯财政尚不存在系统性威胁,仍能找到财政增收的稳定来源,联邦政府和各联邦主体的债务规模可控,国家福利基金仍保持一定规模。也正因此,俄罗斯成功将2023年联邦预算赤字率控制在计划目标之内。随着经济逐步走出制裁冲击并进入复苏发展阶段,俄财政政策的重点也由反制裁危机转向实现中长期国家发展目标:一是确保可持续和可预测的经济环境;二是通过收支的结构性调整推动经济结构转型的加快。

Abstract

Russia’s fiscal and economic operations were still under high pressure in 2023:On the revenue side,the sanctions led to a sharp decline in Russia’s oil and gas revenue,which has not yet returned to pre-sanctions levels. However,thanks to the strong recovery of the domestic economy,non-oil and gas revenue turned around the decline since 2022 and achieved substantial growth,which partially made up for the decline in oil and gas revenue. On the expenditure side,in addition to maintaining growth in national defense and people’s livelihood expenditures,national economic expenditures have reached a record high to promote the transformation of the economic structure and form a new economic growth model. Currently,there are no systemic threats to Russia’s finances,and stable sources of fiscal revenue can still be found. The debt scale of the federal government and various federal entities is controllable,and the national welfare fund still maintains a certain scale. Hence,Russia has successfully controlled the federal budget deficit rate in 2023 within the planned target. As the economy gradually emerges from the impact of sanctions and enters the stage of recovery and development,the focus of Russia’s fiscal policy has also shifted from countering the sanctions crisis to achieving medium- and long-term national development goals,which include ensuring a sustainable and predictable economic environment as well as promoting the acceleration of economic structural transformation through structural adjustments on revenue and expenditures.

作者简介
丁超:丁超,经济学博士,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所俄罗斯经济研究室副研究员。