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“印太经济框架”对亚太区域经济的可能影响及中国的应对(2023)

文章摘要

“印太经济框架”(Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,IPEF)于2022年5月23日在美国总统拜登访问日本期间启动。该框架涵盖了联通经济、韧性经济、清洁经济和公平经济四大主要支柱。首批参与国家共有14个,包括美国、日本、韩国、印度、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度尼西亚、泰国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、越南、文莱和斐济。这些成员与亚太地区已有的经济贸易协定的成员有较大的重叠。拜登政府推出“印太经济框架”的内部动机包括重振美国经济和巩固执政基础,外部目标则是完善亚太地区经济战略并重塑美国在该地区的经济霸权地位。本质上,该框架是一项以美国利益优先的“印太”区域制度整合方案,其未来可能对亚太地区的经济合作和供应链稳定等带来不确定性因素,从而对地区的长期繁荣与稳定构成挑战。中国需要稳步推进制度型对外开放,构建由跨国公司主导的区域供应链,推动“一带一路”高质量发展以应对“印太经济框架”可能带来的不利影响。

Abstract

On May 23,2022,during his visit to Japan,US President Joe Biden announced the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Prosperity Framework(IPEF). The framework focus on four key pillars:connected economy,resilient economy,clean economy,and fair economy. The batch of participating countries in the framework consists of 14 countries,including the United States,Japan,South Korea,India,Australia,New Zealand,Indonesia,Thailand,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,Vietnam,Brunei,and Fiji. These members have significant overlaps with existing economic and trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. The internal motivations behind the Biden administration’s introduction of the IPEF are the revitalization of the US economy and the consolidation of its political foundation. Externally,IPEF aims to improve the economic strategy in the Asia-Pacific region and reshape US economic hegemony in the area. IPEF is an integration plan prioritizing US interests in the Indo-Pacific region. It may introduce uncertainty to economic cooperation and supply chain stability,posing challenges to long-term regional prosperity and stability. To address potential adverse effects of the IPEF,China needs to steadily promote institutionalized opening-up,integrate regional supply chain systems,and facilitate high-quality development of the Belt and Road.

作者简介
张松:张松,经济学博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院助理研究员,主要研究方向为国际投资与贸易、发展经济学。
张中元:张中元,经济学博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院《当代亚太》编辑部主任、研究员,主要研究方向为国际经济学、区域合作。