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RCEP生效实施:经济效益与未来发展

文章摘要

2023年1月1日,《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)正式生效实施一周年。一年来,在大国博弈、地缘冲突、世界经济复苏动力不足的背景下,各国高质量实施RCEP,为区域和全球经济增长注入了活力。2020~2022年,中国对RCEP成员的出口增速高于中国整体出口增速1个百分点,从RCEP成员进口增速低于中国整体进口增速4个百分点;绝大多数成员对RCEP市场的进出口实现两位数增长,其中发展中成员对外贸易的增速高于发达成员对外贸易的增速。RCEP生效还促进地区外商直接投资增长,数据分析显示,跨国公司存在提前进入东南亚市场布局的现象。随着中国加快经济复苏步伐,中国超大规模市场的进口效应在RCEP生效后有望进一步释放。未来,可在高质量执行协定规则、改善关税减让制度、规则升级等层面改进RCEP,确保RCEP始终对投资、贸易增长和成员间经贸合作具有促进作用。

Abstract

On January 1,2023,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)came into effect for the first anniversary. Over the past year,against the backdrop of great power competition,Russia-Ukraine Conflict,and the lack of momentum for world economic recovery,countries have implemented RCEP with high quality,injecting vitality into the growth of regional and global trade and investment. From year 2020 to year 2022,the growth rate of China’s exports to RCEP members is 1 percentage point faster than China’s overall export growth rate,and the growth rate of imports from RCEP members is 4 percentage points slower than China’s overall import growth rate;compared with 2021,most members achieved double-digit growth rate in their trade with RCEP members,and the growth rate of foreign trade of developing members was faster than that of developed members. The entry into force of RCEP has also promoted the growth of foreign direct investment in the region. Data analysis shows that multinational companies have entered the ASEAN market in advance. As China’s economy rebounds,the import effect of China’s large-scale market is expected to be further released. In the future,RCEP can be improved in terms of high-quality implementation of agreement rules,improvement of tariff concession system,and rule upgrades to ensure that RCEP will always promote economic and trade cooperation such as investment and trade.

作者简介
杨超:杨超,经济学博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院助理研究员,主要研究方向为世界经济、新兴经济体。
李天国:李天国,经济学博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员,主要研究方向为国际经济学、新兴经济体、朝韩经济。