受到新冠疫情、乌克兰危机和发达经济体货币紧缩的影响,全球经济增速放缓,但亚太地区经济体需求仍保持强劲,经济发展依然具有韧性。亚太部分国家旧有政治难题仍未解决,多重因素叠加,地区政治局势更趋错综复杂。美国拜登政府继续推进对华全面战略竞争,致使地区秩序加速重组。在新冠疫情尚未得到有效控制的情况下,亚太地区加快数字经济发展,部分国家出现政局动荡,传统安全与非传统安全挑战并存,地区合作的路径竞争趋势越发凸显。展望2023年,亚洲经济发展还具有巨大的不确定性,部分发展中国家在未来可能面临政治和经济稳定性方面的挑战,地区安全形势将仍徘徊于动荡不安之中,RCEP与印太经济框架等区域合作机制分化明显。
Global growth has slowed due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,the Ukraine Crisis and monetary tightening in developed economies,but demand in Asia-Pacific economies remains strong and economic development remains resilient. While the old political problems remain unresolved in the Asia-Pacific economies,a series of factors have exerted a complex influence on the political situation of the region. The Biden administration continues to promote comprehensive strategic competition with China,and at the same time,it also leads the regional order to accelerate restructuring. With the COVID-19 epidemic yet to be effectively controlled,the Asia-Pacific region is speeding up the development of digital economy,some economies in the region are experiencing political turmoil,traditional and non-traditional security challenges coexist,and the trend of competition in regional cooperation has become increasingly prominent. Looking ahead to 2023,there is still huge uncertainty in Asia’s economic development,some developing economies may face stability challenges in the future,the regional security situation will remain unstable,and the RCEP and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and other regional cooperation architectures are clearly differentiated.
| Keywords: | Regional CooperationUkraine CrisisAsia-Pacific RegionU.S.-China relationsThe COVID-19 Epidemic |