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2023~2024年印度尼西亚经济形势与对外经济合作

文章摘要

本报告分析了印尼的经济形势和对外经济合作情况。报告指出,2023年以来,印尼经济增速放缓,但也表现出一定的韧性,仍高于东盟整体及新兴市场的平均增速,2024年一季度印尼已显示出经济回升的积极迹象。服务业与资源产业是主要驱动力,运输、仓储、商业服务等细分行业增长突出。受汇率波动等因素影响,2023年,印尼出口额下降11.36%,但仍实现了369.1亿美元的贸易顺差。就业市场有所改善,失业率降至5.32%,但仍高于疫情前水平,且就业稳定性差。居民收入增长缓慢,并受到通胀侵蚀,反映收入差距的基尼系数有所上升。政府财政收支能力增加,但也面临债务融资压力。在对外经济合作方面,外商直接投资(FDI)持续增长,主要投资领域包括冶金、采矿、物流、化工及制药等。

Abstract

This report analyzes Indonesia’s economic situation and international economic cooperations. The report points out that Indonesia’s economic growth has slowed down since 2023,but shown some resilience. It is still higher than the average growth rate of the five big ASEAN countries and the overall emerging markets. In the first quarter of 2024,there have been positive signs of economic recovery. The service industry and resource industry are the main drivers,with significant growth in sectors such as transportation,warehousing,and commercial services. Affected by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations,export amounts have decreased by 11.36% in 2023,but a trade surplus of USD 36.91 billion has still been achieved. The job market has improved,with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.32%,but it is still higher than the pre-pandemic level,and job stability is still poor. Resident income growth is slow and eroded by inflation,and the higher Gini index reflecting the income gap has increased. The government’s capacity on fulfilling the fiscal revenue and expenditure has increased,but it also faces pressure from increasing debt financing. In terms of international economic cooperation,FDI continues to grow,the main investment areas include metallurgy,mining,logistics,chemical,and pharmaceutical industries.

作者简介
左志刚:左志刚,经济学博士,广东外语外贸大学教授,主要研究方向为印尼经济和对外投资。