本文讨论的是法律论证支持工具的一个新用例，即用贝叶斯概率论支持对复杂刑事案件的分析与讨论。通过案例研究，我们分析了法庭上两个专家间的两个真实讨论，并分析了他们的论证结构。该项研究，确证了几个公认论证型式的有效性，并提出了一个统计论证的新型式，还对两个专家间就其论证有效性的辩论进行了分析。从实践的角度来看，本项案例研究为支持软件设计提供了见解，讨论了有关复杂犯罪案件的贝叶斯分析。
This article discusses a new use case of legal argumentation support tools，namely：using Bayesian probability theory to support the analysis and discussion of complex criminal cases. By studying cases，we analyzed two real discussions between two experts in court and analyzed their argument structure. In this study，the validity of several generally accepted argument types was confirmed，a new scheme of statistical argumentation was proposed，and the debate between two experts on the validity of the argumentation was analyzed. From a practical point of view，this case study provides insights to support software design and discusses Bayesian analysis of complex crime cases.
