本报告系统梳理了全球服务贸易从传统服务贸易到智能化服务贸易的演进过程,分析了技术变革、全球化与政策环境等对服务贸易结构和模式的深远影响。结合历史发展脉络,探讨了信息技术革命如何推动数字化服务兴起,并在当前由大模型和人工智能(AI)驱动的智能化服务中展现出全新趋势,通过具体国家案例展示了各国如何通过技术创新、产业升级和平台经济发展提升其全球服务竞争力。在智能化浪潮的推动下,服务贸易的模式正逐渐从高度依赖人力的传统模式转型为以AI赋能的高效率、个性化和去中心化的模式。平台经济与AI的深度融合促进了电子商务、金融科技、远程医疗、在线教育等领域的跨境服务贸易发展。但贸易保护主义、数据主权及隐私保护等问题也成为全球智能化服务贸易面临的主要挑战。针对新一代人工智能崛起带来的机遇与挑战,本报告提出若干建议以期加快发展新质生产力,推动我国在全球智能化服务贸易新格局中把握战略主动,实现经济高质量发展。
This report systematically combs the evolution of global trade in services from traditional trade in services to intelligent trade in services,and analyzes the profound impact of technological change,globalization and policy environment on the structure and model of trade in services. Combining the historical development context,the article explores how the information technology revolution has promoted the rise of digital services,and shows new trends in the current intelligent services driven by big models and artificial intelligence(AI). Through specific country cases,it shows how countries can enhance their global service competitiveness through technological innovation,industrial upgrading and platform economic development. Driven by the wave of intelligence,the model of trade in services is gradually transforming from a traditional model that is highly dependent on manpower to a highly efficient,personalized and decentralized model empowered by AI. The deep integration of platform economy and AI technology has promoted the development of cross-border trade in services in the fields of e-commerce,financial technology,telemedicine,online education,etc. However,trade protectionism,data sovereignty and privacy protection have also become major challenges to global intelligent trade in services. In view of the opportunities and challenges brought about by the rise of a new generation of artificial intelligence,this report puts forward several suggestions in the hope of accelerating the development of new quality productivity,promoting my country to seize the strategic initiative in the new pattern of global intelligent trade in services,and achieving high-quality economic development.