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中国智能产业上市公司高质量发展评价:基于产业革命变迁视角

文章摘要

作为社会主义市场经济的重要微观主体,上市公司高质量发展不仅是维护资本市场健康发展的重要基础,也是宏观经济高质量发展的重要依托。智能产业革命时代的到来将会带来生产力跃迁,从根本上重塑中国经济增长的内生逻辑,从增量和存量上对中国新兴行业和传统行业进行重造。特别是在智能产业革命路径逐渐清晰和预期逐渐明确的情况下,微观层面,上市公司资本支出、劳动力收入增厚和创新增长等效应促进了上市公司在经历内外部环境冲击下仍然保持了转型与发展相统一的增长路径,智能产业类上市公司表现更为突出。在翔实机理分析和统计分析的基础上,本报告进一步根据《国家人工智能产业综合标准化体系建设指南(2024版)》所列示的人工智能产业标准体系对中国智能产业类上市公司进行了挑选,从分布看,中国智能产业类上市公司主要集中在计算机、机械设备、电子和通信等ICT硬件和软件行业。然后,本报告使用包含经营绩效、估值水平、治理能力、创新能力和创值能力等五方面的评价体系对中国智能产业类上市公司高质量发展情况进行了评估,同时选取各行业综合质量靠前的上市公司构建了“智能产业50”投资组合,回测结果显示该组合不仅大幅跑赢市场主要宽基指数,而且自2023年1月以来能够为投资者带来绝对正收益。同时,“智能产业50”投资组合不仅质优而且性价比高,其市盈率水平远远低于科创板块,与主板相差不大。“智能产业50”投资组合具备长期投资价值,是中国智能产业革命大潮在微观上的集中体现。

Abstract

As an important micro-main body of the socialist market economy,the high-quality development of listed companies is not only an important basis for maintaining the healthy development of the capital market,but also an important support for the high-quality development of the macro economy. The arrival of the era of intelligent industrial revolution will bring about a leap in productivity,fundamentally reshaping the endogenous logic of economic growth,and regenerating and rebuilding China’s emerging industries and traditional industries from the perspective of increment and stock. In particular,as the path of the intelligent industrial revolution is gradually clear and the expectations are gradually clear,the effects of capital expenditure,labor income increase and innovation growth of China’s micro listed companies have promoted the listed companies to maintain the growth path of transformation and development despite the impact of internal and external environment,especially the realization of listed companies in the intelligent industry is more obvious. On the basis of detailed mechanism analysis and statistical analysis,this report further selects China’s intelligent industry listed companies according to the artificial intelligence industry standard system listed in the National Artificial Intelligence Industry Comprehensive Standardization System Construction Guide(2024 edition). Listed companies in China’s intelligent industry are mainly concentrated in ICT hardware and software concentrated industries such as computers,mechanical equipment,electronics and communications. Then,this report evaluates the high-quality development of China’s intelligent industry listed companies in five aspects,including business performance,valuation level,governance ability,innovation ability and value creation ability. At the same time,the top listed companies in various industries are selected to build the “intelligent industry 50” investment portfolio. The backtest results show that the portfolio not only outperforms the main broad base index of the market by a large margin,but also outperforms the market. And since January 2023,it has been able to generate absolutely positive returns for investors. At the same time,the “smart industry 50” portfolio is not only high-quality but also “cheap”,and its price-earnings ratio is far lower than that of the science and technology sector,which is not much different from the main board. In the long run,the “intelligent Industry 50” investment portfolio has long-term investment value,which is a concentrated reflection of the tide of China’s intelligent industrial revolution at the micro level.

作者简介
张鹏:张鹏,中国社会科学院经济研究所经济增长研究室副主任,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心副主任,研究方向为经济增长与资本市场。
胡蝶:胡蝶,中国社会科学院大学经济学院硕士研究生。
陶双桅:陶双桅,经济学博士,中信银行总行交易银行部高级经理。