1979年后，伊朗人口政策经历了从鼓励生育到限制生育再到鼓励生育的钟摆式演进过程，体现了宗教传统价值影响下的意识形态与经济发展诉求之间的矛盾。人口政策的制定优先考虑宗教传统价值观，以鼓励人口增长为主要导向，该导向经由与西方的意识形态较量催化而转为“人口力量论”；然而，在政策的运作中，经济发展诉求才是政策运作的内驱力，发挥决定性作用。国家经济实力决定了配套激励措施的落实，个人经济发展诉求决定了对政策的响应。在此机制的作用下，当前伊朗的人口政策面临吊诡处境，无法有效解决如人口红利受到抑制，失业率居高不下，过度城市化，水资源匮乏，人口结构有待优化等诸多困境。
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979，Iran’s population policy has undergone a pendulum-like evolution from encouraging to restricting and back to encouraging fertility，which reflects the fundamental contradiction between political ideology influenced by religious values and the demand for economic development. Iran’s formulation of population policy gives priority to religious ideology，with encouraging population growth as the main orientation，which has been transformed into the “demographic power theory” through the contest with Western ideology. In the policy operation，however，it is the demand for economic development that plays the decisive role as the underlying internal driving force. National economic strength determines the implementation of supporting incentive measures，and individual economic development aspirations determine the response to the policy. As a result of this mechanism，Iran’s current population policy is in a paradoxical situation，unable to effectively address many dilemmas such as the suppressed demographic dividend，high unemployment rates，over-urbanization，water scarcity，and optimization of the demographic structure.
