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美国2024年大选及其国际影响

文章摘要

2024年美国总统大选引发全世界的广泛关注。两党在国际政策上具有明显差别,因此选举结果将对美国和全球秩序产生重大冲击和深远影响。自哈里斯替代拜登成为民主党候选人后,其与特朗普在民调中差距极小,尤其是在摇摆州选情胶着,使美国外交政策的不确定性进一步增加。从民主党方面看,拜登政府施政能力、涉外政策不断受到质疑,哈里斯个人政治声望不及拜登等因素对民主党选情造成了影响。从共和党方面看,民粹派和建制派严重分裂、特朗普陷入司法指控等因素对共和党选情造成了干扰。如果哈里斯上台执政,大概率将延续拜登政府的外交路线,继续以强化联盟为主轴应对国际地缘政治经济挑战。最终,特朗普再次当选,将重回单边为主的“美国优先”内外政策。无论何人当选,国际格局多极化的趋势不会改变,国际秩序在动荡中持续变革的态势将会延续,中美博弈也将进入新的阶段。

Abstract

The 2024 US presidential election has attracted widespread attention from all over the world. The two parties have obvious differences in international policies,so the election results will have a major and far-reaching impact on the US and the global order. Since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate,the gap between her and Trump in the polls has been very small,especially in the swing states where the election situation is stalemate,which has further increased the uncertainty of US foreign policy. From the perspective of the Democratic Party,the Biden administration’s governance capabilities and foreign-related policies have been constantly questioned,and Harris’s personal political reputation is not as good as Biden’s,which has affected the Democratic Party’s election situation. From the perspective of the Republican Party,factors such as the serious split between populists and the establishment and Trump’s involvement in judicial charges have interfered with the Republican election situation. In the end,if Harris comes to power,it is highly likely that the Biden administration’s policies will continue,and the alliances will continue to strengthen. If Trump is re-elected,he will return to the unilateral “America First” domestic and foreign policies. But no matter who is elected,the trend of multi-polarization will not change,the trend of continuous change in the international order in turmoil will continue,and the China-US relations will enter a new stage.

作者简介
金君达:金君达,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国内政外交。
王雷:王雷,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为周边安全、中国对外战略等。
赵海:赵海,中国社会科学院国家全球战略智库国际政治研究部主任,副研究员,主要研究领域为中美关系。