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“一带一路”共建国家投资的经济安全分析报告(2022)

文章摘要

新冠疫情暴发使刚从金融危机中恢复过来的全球经济增长面临巨大阻碍,居民消费水平降低,企业投资风险较高。在此背景下,中国与“一带一路”国家积极开展经贸往来,共同推出互利共赢的宏观政策,携手共渡难关。本报告采用“一带一路”国家中79个样本国家2010~2020年的样本数据进行量化分析,得出相应的经济投资安全指数。结果表明,稳定的政治环境、产业多元化、完善的法律法规等因素对经济投资安全影响重大,经济投资安全指数呈现区域性与稳定性。其中,以新加坡为代表的东南亚区域长期保持在区域排名前列,而深受政治动乱困扰的北非国家投资风险较高。本报告提出了相关的政策建议,旨在降低投资风险,鼓励投资者进行跨国投资,将“一带一路”建设成推动相关国家协同发展、带动全球经济增长的公共品。

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has put the global economic growth that has just recovered from the financial crisis facing huge obstacles,with reduced consumption levels and higher risks of corporate investment. In this context,China and countries along the “Belt and Road” have actively carried out economic and trade exchanges,jointly launched mutually beneficial and win-win macro policies,and worked together to tide over difficulties. In this paper,the sample data of 79 sample countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2010 to 2020 are used for quantitative analysis to obtain the corresponding economic investment security index. The results show that factors such as a stable political environment,industrial diversification,and perfect laws and regulations have a significant impact on the security of economic investment,and the economic investment security index is regional and stable. Among them,the Southeast Asian region,represented by Singapore,has long maintained the forefront of the regional ranking,while the North African countries plagued by political turmoil have higher investment risks. This report puts forward relevant policy recommendations aimed at reducing investment risks,encouraging investors to invest across borders,and building the “Belt and Road” into a public good that promotes the coordinated development of relevant countries and drives global economic growth.

作者简介
梁昊光:梁昊光,中国科学院中国现代化研究中心主任、研究员,中国科学院文献情报中心开放科学研究中心主任,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授、博士生导师。
王垚:王垚,北京第二外国语学院“一带一路”数据分析与决策支持北京市重点实验室助理研究员,主要研究方向为产业经济学。
黄伟:黄伟,北京第二外国语学院“一带一路”数据分析与决策支持北京市重点实验室助理研究员,主要研究方向为产业经济学。
姜戈越:姜戈越,北京第二外国语学院商学院硕士研究生,主要研究方向为会计学。