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人工智能对全球劳动力市场的影响

文章摘要

人工智能(AI)对就业产生深远影响,既通过智能化替代传统岗位造成“破坏效应”,也通过催生新行业和岗位展现“创造效应”。AI显著改变了职业任务结构,拓展了新技能需求,促进了人机协同,提高了生产效率。同时,AI的发展仍受限于处理复杂任务的能力及社会伦理考量。AI对不同行业的影响各异,整体上重塑了就业市场,既带来挑战也创造机遇。由于劳动供给和行业结构的差异,AI对不同国家的劳动力市场产生异质性影响。发达国家面临的劳动力供给短缺问题,能够利用AI得以缓解,且其人力资本更适合新岗位需求。相比之下,发展中国家依赖低技能劳动力参与国际分工,AI技术的普及削弱了其比较优势,加剧了劳动力供需错位和失业问题。此外,AI创造的高技能岗位多集中在服务业,主要惠及发达国家,而AI替代的岗位多在制造业和农业,对发展中国家冲击更大。长期来看,AI的推广和应用将导致发达国家与发展中国家在就业前景上的差距进一步扩大。AI的发展加剧了国际科技竞争,发达国家凭借高额投入和领先技术垄断了AI发展红利,并可能提升其在全球事务中的话语权,而发展中国家面临技术壁垒和传统发展路径受阻的双重挑战,其差异化影响也引发了全球治理难题。

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) has a profound impact on employment,manifesting both a “disruption effect” by replacing traditional jobs through automation,and a “creation effect” by generating new industries and job roles. AI significantly alters the structure of job tasks,expands demand for new skills,promotes human-machine collaboration,and enhances productivity. However,AI development remains constrained by its capacity to handle complex tasks and by considerations of social ethics. The impact of AI varies across industries,reshaping the job market as a whole,bringing both challenges and opportunities. Due to differences in labor supply and industry structure,AI has heterogeneous effects on labor markets across countries. Developed countries,facing labor shortages,can leverage AI to alleviate this issue,and their human capital is generally better aligned with the demands of new job roles. In contrast,developing countries,which rely on low-skilled labor in global supply chains,may see their comparative advantage eroded by the proliferation of AI,exacerbating mismatches in labor supply and demand as well as unemployment issues. Moreover,many of the high-skilled jobs created by AI are concentrated in the service sector,benefiting primarily developed countries,while jobs most susceptible to AI substitution are often in manufacturing and agriculture,sectors critical to developing countries. In the long term,the diffusion and application of AI are likely to widen employment disparities between developed and developing nations. AI’s advancement intensifies international technological competition,with developed countries reaping AI-related dividends due to their substantial investments and technological dominance,potentially reinforcing their influence in global affairs. In contrast,developing countries face dual challenges of technological barriers and disruptions to traditional development pathways,and these differential impacts raise new challenges in global governance.

作者简介
宋锦:宋锦,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,发展研究中心主任,主要研究方向为发展经济学。
刘东升:刘东升,中国社会科学院大学,主要研究方向为技术变革与政策。