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2024~2025年亚太经济:增速放缓

文章摘要

在2023年通货膨胀压力下行和国际旅游业持续复苏等多重利好下,亚太经济增长势头意外强劲,2024年上半年走势向好,但随着紧缩货币政策抑制经济的作用逐渐显现和美联储货币政策的不确定,下半年增长水平预计略低于2023年。2024年亚太地区17个国家的加权平均经济增速预计为4.5%,比2023年下调0.4个百分点,但仍比全球经济增速高1.3个百分点。同时,亚太地区的通货膨胀率持续下行,国际游客增加带来的物价上涨影响有限;在美联储降息预期下,亚太地区多数经济体货币对美元升值;各国经常账户主要受商品出口的影响出现分化,欧美需求下降使得部分国家经常账户恶化,半导体和电子行业需求增长带动部分国家经常账户改善。展望2025年,亚太经济增长面临诸多不确定性,特别是美国政策,将从贸易和金融等渠道对区域内经济增长带来冲击;但是宽松的货币和财政政策下国内需求的稳健增长、半导体和电子行业外需的扩张以及区域贸易协定的推进都将有效拉动本区域经济增长,使其在全球经济增长进程中持续扮演积极角色。

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific economic momentum was unexpected strong in 2023 amid downward pressure of inflation and continued recovery of international tourism. The positive trend continued in the first half of 2024,but with the gradual emergence of suppressive effects of tight monetary policy and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy,the Asia-Pacific region’s economy decelerated in the second half 2024,with the growth rate expected to be slightly lower than that of 2023. The weighted average economic growth rate of the 17 countries in Asia-Pacific region in 2024 is expected to be 4.5%,a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from 2023,but still 1.3 percentage points higher than global economic. At the same time,the inflation in the Asia-Pacific region continues to decline,and the impact of price increases brought about by the increase of international tourists is limited;under the expectation of Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut,the currencies of most economies in Asia-Pacific region have appreciated against the US dollar;the current accounts of various countries have diverged mainly affected by commodity exports,the decline in demand from Europe and United States result in the deterioration of some countries’ current accounts,while the growth of demand for semiconductor and electronics industry has led to some countries’ current accounts improving. Looking forward to 2025,the Asia-Pacific economic growth faces many uncertainties,especially the US elections and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy,which will impact on economic growth within the region through trade and financial channels. However,the robust growth of internal demand under loose monetary and fiscal policies,the growth of external demand for the semiconductor and electronics industry,and the progress on regional trade agreements will effectively drive region’s economy,allowing it to continue to play an active role in global economic growth process.

作者简介
倪淑慧:倪淑慧,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为国际金融、金融发展。
杨盼盼:杨盼盼,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员、国际金融研究室主任,主要研究方向为国际金融、亚太经济。