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2023年的日本金融:择时而动,蓄势待发

文章摘要

2023年植田和男出任日本央行行长。伴随通胀率上涨,日本货币政策进行了相应调整:提高YCC政策运营灵活性,多次上调长期利率目标;继续维持超宽松政策环境;开展政策评估,为实现货币政策正常化提供参考;等等。在日本持续超宽松货币政策作用下,2023年,日本物价上涨,通缩特征弱化;日元贬值,贸易赤字规模缩小;股票市场繁荣,企业业绩大幅上扬;大银行收益增加,地方银行收益下滑。2024年3月,日本春季劳资谈判达成初步结果,企业薪金平均涨幅达5.28%,创1991年以来时隔33年的最大涨幅,显示工资上涨与物价上涨的良性循环已经形成。在此背景下,2024年3月,日本货币政策进行重大调整,实施8年之久的负利率时代宣告结束,2024年7月,日本时隔17年首次启动加息进程。

Abstract

In 2023,Kazuo Ueda became the new president of BOJ. As inflation rises,Japan’s monetary policy has been adjusted accordingly. Such as improving the flexibility of YCC and raising long-term interest rate targets several times;continuing to maintain ultra-loose policy environment;conducting policy evaluations to provide reference for normalizing monetary policy,etc.. Under the effect of QQE,in 2023,Japan’s prices have risen and the characteristics of deflation have weakened;the depreciation of the yen has reduced the size of the trade deficit;stock market boomed and corporate performance soared;large banks’ profits have increased,while local banks have declined. In March 2024,Japan’s spring labor negotiations reached preliminary results. The average increase in corporate wages reached 5.28%,the largest increase in 33 years since 1991,showing that a virtuous cycle of rising wages and rising prices has been formed. In this context,on March 19,2023,Japan made a major adjustment in monetary policy,ending the era of negative interest rates for eight years,and starting to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years.

作者简介
刘瑞:刘瑞,经济学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所研究员、全国日本经济学会常务理事,主要研究领域:日本经济、日本金融、中日金融制度比较等。