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法国经济:多重不利因素影响下韧性不足

文章摘要

2023年法国经济延续了上一年高通胀和低增长的趋势。在欧洲央行连续加息和法国超常规的财政援助刺激下,整体经济表现出一定韧性,在宏观环境恶化和国际竞争加剧的条件下维持了低速的经济增长,但新冠疫情后的经济复苏势头明显受到遏制。在高通胀和高利率的影响下,以消费、投资为代表的国内需求双双减速,对外贸易逆差虽然有所减少,但依然保持了历史高位。劳动力市场供需失衡和公共财政恶化等顽疾依然存在。2023年的经济政策主要围绕保护家庭购买力、推动劳动力市场改革和充分就业以及推进绿色产业发展等优先事项展开。受高利率、高通胀、高赤字和高债务等因素的牵制,加上国际地缘政治持续造成的不确定性,未来两三年内法国经济依然难有起色。

Abstract

The French economy in 2023 continued to be characterized by the high inflation and low growth trend of the previous year. Affected by successive interest rate hikes of the ECB and extraordinary financial assistance from French government,the overall economy showed some resilience,but the dynamic of post-Covid economic recovery was clearly curtailed by sustained low economic growth under deteriorating macro-economic conditions and intensified international competition. Domestic demand,represented by consumption and investment,decelerated under the influence of high inflation and high interest rates,and the foreign trade deficit,although declining,remained at a historically high level. Persistent problems such as the imbalance between supply and demand on the labor market and the deterioration of public finances persist. Economic policy in 2023 has given priorities to protecting the purchasing power of households,promoting labor market reforms and full employment as well as the development of green industries. The French economy will continue to strive in the next two or three years,held back by high interest rates,high inflation,high deficits and high debt level,as well as continued uncertainties caused by international geopolitics events.

作者简介
洪晖:洪晖,北京外国语大学法语语言文化学院教师,硕士生导师,非洲学院特设兼职副教授,法语语言文学学士及硕士,经济学博士。