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2023年欧洲对外关系:东扩提速、移民潮涌

文章摘要

2023~2024年,俄乌冲突延宕,东扩和移民重回欧洲政治、外交议题的核心。地缘政治博弈、俄乌冲突带来的安全压力促使欧盟加快东扩进程。欧盟这种将入盟作为安全建设机制的做法可能偏离候选国的入盟目标。愈演愈烈的移民/难民问题正在欧洲内外发酵。它不仅考验欧盟的治理能力,而且测试欧洲一体化的发展韧性。在欧美关系上,北约扩员,欧洲安全局势进一步恶化。美国与欧洲多国签订的双边安全协议巩固了其军事领导地位,欧盟“战略自主”的实际意义遭到弱化。欧美经贸关系呈现合作、竞争双向扩大的趋势。在欧俄关系上,欧洲对俄制裁的效果有限,俄乌之间依然难见和平的曙光。在非洲,来自该地区的移民、难民困扰着欧洲各国。在亚洲,欧洲增强与美协调,提高与印度展开多维合作,欲借成立“印度-中东-欧洲经济走廊”、欧盟-印度贸易和技术委员会之势,展示其“全球性角色”的外交定位。新巴以冲突的爆发,使无法在加沙停火协议上采取一致立场的欧洲备受指责。在欧拉关系上,几近成功的《欧盟-南方共同市场自由贸易协定》谈判遭遇“流产”,欧盟“去风险”战略暂受挫折。

Abstract

In 2023-2024,the Ukraine crisis continues to drag on,enlargement and migration return to the core of European politics. The geopolitical game and the security pressure brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine prompt the EU to speed up the process of enlargement. The EU’s approach of using membership as a security-building mechanism may deviate from the accession goals of the candidate countries. The growing migrant/refugee problem is brewing inside and outside Europe. It will test not only the EU’s governance capacity,but also the resilience of European integration. In the relations between Europe and the United States,NATO expanded its membership,and the security situation in Europe deteriorated further. Bilateral security agreements between the United States and many European countries reinforce its military leadership and weaken the practical meaning of the EU’s “strategic autonomy.” The economic and trade relations between Europe and the United States show a trend of two-way expansion of cooperation and competition. In terms of EU-Russia relations,the effect of European sanctions on Russia is limited,and the Ukraine crisis is still difficult to see the dawn of peace. In Africa,migrants and refugees from the region plague European countries. In Asia,Europe has strengthened coordination with the U.S and enhanced multidimensional cooperation with India,aiming to demonstrate its diplomatic positioning as a “global player” through the establishment of the “India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor” and the EU-India Technology and Trade Council. The outbreak of the new Israeli-Palestinian conflict has exposed Europe to criticism for its inability to take a unified position on a ceasefire in Gaza. In Latin America,the talks of the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement have been suspended,the EU’s “de-risking” strategy has suffered a temporary setback.

作者简介
曹慧:曹慧,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲国际关系、欧盟政治、气候与能源政策、意大利政治等。