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2023年欧洲经济:在多重压力下再陷低迷

文章摘要

2023年,俄乌冲突仍在持续,欧洲经济在多重不利因素的影响下艰难前行。得益于能源价格大幅回落,欧洲的通货膨胀率自2022年底开始持续回落,但是2023年全年欧盟和欧元区的通胀率仍在5%以上,消费物价水平也处于历史高位。高通胀和高物价仍是影响2023年欧洲经济形势的最重要因素。2023年,为压制通胀,欧央行继续收紧货币政策,连续数次加息,已将三大关键利率提高至欧元区成立以来的最高水平。高通胀和高利率,加之全球经济复苏乏力导致的外需疲弱,2023年欧盟以及欧洲主要国家的经济复苏势头较2022年进一步趋弱。此外,随着欧洲各国逐步退出能源补贴等社会救助措施,2023年欧盟整体以及多数成员国的公共财政状况有小幅改善,但是高债务的总体特征仍难以扭转。此外,2023年,“下一代欧盟”复苏基金的落实以及欧盟推进绿色转型和数字化转型的新进展也值得关注。最后,本报告还对2024年欧洲经济前景做了展望。

Abstract

In 2023,the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued,and the European economy struggled to develop under the influence of multiple adverse factors. Thanks to the significant drop in energy prices,Europe’s inflation rate has continued to decline since the end of 2022. However,for the entire year of 2023,the inflation rate in the EU and Eurozone remained above 5%,and consumer prices were also at historically high levels. High inflation and high prices remain the most important factors affecting the economic situation in Europe in 2023. In 2023,to suppress inflation,the European Central Bank continued to tighten monetary policy and raised interest rates several times,raising three key interest rates to the highest level since the introduction of the euro. High inflation and high interest rates,coupled with weak external demand caused by weak global economic recovery,have further weakened the economic recovery momentum of the EU and major European countries in 2023 compared to 2022. In addition,as European countries gradually withdraw from social assistance measures such as energy subsidies,the overall public financial situation of the EU and its most member states has slightly improved in 2023,but the overall characteristics of high debt are still difficult to change. In addition,in 2023,the implementation of the “Next Generation EU” recovery fund and the new progress of the EU in promoting green and digital “twin transitions” still deserve attention. Finally,this report also provides an outlook for the European economy in 2024.

作者简介
孙彦红:孙彦红,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所研究员、欧洲经济研究室主任,主要研究领域为欧洲经济、欧盟及其主要国家产业政策、意大利研究、中欧/中意关系。
孙雅雯:孙雅雯,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲绿色经济、中欧经贸关系。