2023年欧洲内外形势呈现新变化。经济上,受高通胀、高利率、高政府债务等因素影响,欧洲经济停滞不前,下行压力未减。政治上,经济衰退抬高居民生活成本,引发民众普遍不满,主流政党能力和信誉受到挑战,极右翼势力强势反弹。外交上,欧洲面临“俄乌”和“巴以”两场地区冲突,其自身定位在“跨大西洋”和“欧亚”之间摇摆,一方面希望巩固自身在美国主导的自由世界秩序中的地位,另一方面希望深化跟中国的合作,将自身塑造为多极世界中的重要一极。为了应对艰难时局,2023年欧盟将“经济安全”作为政策发力点,重新开启东扩进程,寻求将乌克兰和巴尔干国家纳入欧盟,化解地缘政治风险,跟美国绑定,寻求化解地区冲突之道,并推动对华“去风险”。2024年欧洲经济预计实现温和反弹,但在“去风险”政策推动下,经济复苏前景并不明朗。受此影响,进入大选年的欧洲可能面临剧烈的政治重组。在内部政治动荡、美国可能抽身俄乌冲突的背景下,欧盟只有坚定“战略自主”,并跟中国相向而行,才能找到化解自身危机、重振全球领导力之道。
In 2023,Europe experienced new changes both internally and externally. Economically,impacted by factors such as high inflation,high interest rates,and high government debt,the European economy stagnated,with downward pressure unabated. Politically,economic recession raised dissatisfaction among the population due to deteriorating living standards,challenging the capabilities and credibility of mainstream political parties,while far-right forces rebounded strongly. Internationally,Europe faced two regional conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Palestine. It oscillated between its positioning within the “Transatlantic” and “Eurasian” spheres,hoping to both consolidate its position in the US-led liberal world order and deepen cooperation with China to shape itself as a significant pole in a multipolar world. To tackle the challenging situation,the EU designated “economic security” as a policy focal point in 2023,reopening the Eastern enlargement process,seeking to integrate Ukraine and Balkan countries into the EU to mitigate geopolitical risks,binding closer with the United States,seeking paths to resolve regional conflicts,and pushing for “de-risking” towards China. Europe’s economy is projected to achieve a moderate rebound in 2024,but under the policy of “de-risking,” the prospects for economic recovery remain unclear. Consequently,Europe entering an election year might face significant political reshuffling. Against the backdrop of internal political turbulence and the possibility of the US withdrawing from the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the EU can only find a way out of its crisis and revitalize global leadership by firmly asserting “strategic autonomy” and engaging with China.
| Keywords: | Strategic AutonomyEconomic SecurityEuropean IntegrationRussia-Ukraine ConflictIsrael-Palestin Conflict |