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2023~2024年非洲经济复苏困难重重

文章摘要

受全球经济增速放缓、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、全球货币政策紧缩、气候灾害对农业和旅游业负面冲击等因素的影响,2023年非洲经济增速放缓,通货膨胀率升至近十年来的最高水平。得益于财政整顿和债务重组,非洲国家经历了新冠疫情引发的财政赤字急剧扩大后,财政赤字开始收窄,但受国际需求疲软及大宗商品价格波动等影响,经常项目逆差扩大,外国直接投资出现小幅下滑。非洲国家如果能够努力减轻地缘政治风险带来的输入性冲击;加速发展可再生能源产业,改善能源贫困现状;提高偿债能力,降低债务风险;摆脱粮食不安全困境,预计2024年非洲经济将出现一定反弹,且仍具有明显的长期增长潜力。

Abstract

African economic growth slowed down in 2023 due to the slowdown of global economic growth,rising geopolitical tensions,tightening of global monetary policy,and destructive impact of the climate crisis on agriculture and tourism. The inflation rate rose to the highest level in the past decade. Thanks to fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring,African countries began to narrow their fiscal deficits after experiencing a sharp expansion caused by the COVID-19. However,due to weak international demand and fluctuations in commodity prices,the current account deficits widened and foreign direct investment declined slightly. But African economic still have a long-term growth potential. If African countries could make effort to mitigate the imported shocks caused by geopolitical risks,accelerate the development of renewable energy industry to improve energy poverty,improve debt servicing capacity,reduce debt risk,and get rid of food insecurity,African economy will be expected to rebound to a certain extent in 2024.

作者简介
张春宇:张春宇,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所(中国非洲研究院)副研究员,主要研究领域为非洲经济、海洋经济、国际经济合作。
李若杨:李若杨,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所(中国非洲研究院)编辑,主要研究领域为非洲经济、国际金融。