您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

全库
全文
  • 全文
  • 标题
  • 作者/机构
  • 关键词
  • 主题词
  • 摘要
高级检索
热词推荐: 基础设施能源

2022年的美国经济:增速回落 通胀渐缓

文章摘要

2022年,新冠疫情对美国经济的影响呈现逐渐下降的趋势,但美国经济面临的内外挑战依然严峻,尤其是在俄乌冲突的冲击下,经济增长率从2021年的5.9%回落至2.1%。俄乌冲突的爆发导致能源和粮食价格迅速攀升,通胀水平扶摇直上,迫使美联储全年连续7次提高联邦基金利率,终于使价格增速逐渐放缓。劳动力市场则延续了2021年以来的强劲表现,失业率稳定在较低水平。同时,进出口持续增长,但贸易逆差进一步扩大。在政策和立法层面,拜登政府继续沿着“重建更美好未来”的纲领前行,推出了一系列旨在改善民生、提升美国竞争力的政策措施;国会通过了《通胀削减法案》,将加大对清洁能源、应对气候变化以及医疗保健的支持力度,并对医疗领域和税收系统进行改革,有助于在中长期降低财政赤字。展望2023年,美国经济面临的最主要挑战是如何在抑制通胀的同时避免陷入衰退。此外,随着大规模经济刺激法案相继落地,联邦债务总额不断上升并已触及法定债务上限。在日趋激烈的党派竞争下,国会能否就债务上限问题达成一致为经济前景增添了新的不确定性。

Abstract

In 2022,despite a declining economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,the U.S.economy encountered serious domestic and external challenges,with the exposure to Russian-Ukraine Conflict in particular. The U.S.annual output growth rate fell from 5.9% in 2021 to 2.1%. Meanwhile,the Conflict has led to a tremendous surge of energy and food prices,spurring skyrocketing inflation,forcing the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate seven times a year,and finally the price growth gradually slowed down. The labor market remained to be tight since 2021 with constant low unemployment rate. Both exports and imports continued to grow,but the trade deficits further widened. On the policy front,the Biden administration continued its path towards the “Build Back Better” blueprint and put forward a series of policy measures,aiming at improving people’s livelihood and enhancing U.S.competitiveness. The Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,which is designed to augment the support for clean energy,climate,and Medicare reform as well as reducing the fiscal deficits in the longer term. Previewing the U.S.economy in 2023,its primary challenge lies in how to keep inflation in check while avoiding a recession. Besides,along with the implementation of economic stimulus packages in the past two years,the Federal debt level was quickly climbing up and has reached the debt ceiling. In the context of massive partisan divide in Washington,whether the Congress will be able to reach a consensus on debt ceiling adds new uncertainty to the economic outlook.

作者简介
高智君:高智君,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国对外经济战略、国际政治经济学和发展经济学。