我国已经在七个省市开展碳排放权交易试点,本文以上海、北京、广东和湖北碳交易市场2019年6月至2021年6月的碳交易数据,进行有效性检验。序列相关性检验的结果表明,湖北和上海碳市场是弱有效的,而北京和广东碳市场无效;随机游程检验的结果也表明湖北和上海碳市场是弱有效的;单位根ADF检验和KPSS检验的结果也同样支持上述结论;而GARCH模型检验的结果则认为广东、北京和湖北碳市场都是无效的市场。碳市场的有效性受到流动性、制度环境、经济环境、社会环境和能源市场联动性等因素的影响,对七个试点省市差异化的制度设计进行政策效果的评估与反馈,能为探索粤港澳大湾区碳排放权交易市场提供建设思路。
Pilot carbon emission trading projects have been carried out in five cities as well as two provinces in China. Shanghai,Beijing,Guangdong,Hubei carbon emissions trading were selected for cases study of efficiency analysis,based on the carbon trading data from June,2019 to June,2021. After performing the serial correlation test,it is concluded that the carbon market is consistent with weak form efficiency in Hubei and Shanghai,Beijing and Guangdong carbon market is invalid. Run test is also performed and it shows that Hubei and Shanghai carbon market are weak efficient,the above conclusion is also supported by ADF and KPSS unit root test. The regressive results of the GARCH model reveal that Guangdong,Beijing and Hubei carbon markets are invalid. The effectiveness of the carbon market is influenced by the factors such as liquidity,institutional environment,economic environment,social environment and the linkage of the energy market. To explore on the construction of carbon emission trading market in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,we should evaluate and feedback the policy effect of the system design of the seven pilot carbon emission trading projects.
Keywords: | Carbon FinanceThe Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay AreaCarbon Emission Trading MarketMarket Effectiveness |