2022年,新冠疫情以及俄乌冲突带来的外部冲击,如卢布贬值、能源价格上涨、全球生产链断裂和碎片化等,对中亚五国经济发展造成巨大影响,中亚五国经济增速均有所放缓,通货膨胀率不断走高。在这种大背景下,中亚五国经济运行也有向好的特征,包括人均年收入自2013年以来持续下降的趋势被扭转,失业率有所下降,劳动人口参与率较为平稳,财政收支状况良好,政府债务占GDP比重减少,国际收支状况略有改善等。中亚五国经济发展面临的最大挑战是受外部影响大,专业化产业分工具有高度的外部依赖性,经济容易受到如地缘冲突、大宗商品价格波动、大国博弈等外因的影响。在各国宏观经济政策的调控下,中亚国家经济表现出明显韧性,以及受俄罗斯经济波动影响大的特征。同时,中亚区域内的合作更加紧密,区域内预期经济增速将有所回升。
In 2022,the constant variation of COVID-19 and the external impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,such as the devaluation of the ruble,the rise in energy prices,the rupture and fragmentation of the global production chain,etc.,have a huge impact on the economic development of the five Central Asian countries. The economic growth rate of the five Central Asian countries has slowed down in 2022,and the inflation rate continues to rise. Under this trend,the economic operation also has positive characteristics,including:the trend of continuous decline in per capita income since 2013 has been reversed,the unemployment rate has decreased,the labor force participation rate is relatively stable,the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation is good,the proportion of government debt to GDP has decreased,and the international revenue and expenditure situation has slightly improved. The biggest challenge faced by the economic development of the five Central Asian countries is the significant external influence. Specialized industrial division of labor has a high degree of external dependence,and the economy is easily affected by external factors such as geopolitical conflicts,fluctuations in commodity prices,and major-country rivalry,etc.. Under the regulation of macroeconomic policies in various countries,the economies of Central Asian countries have shown significant resilience and are greatly affected by economic fluctuations in Russia. At the same time,cooperation within the Central Asian region is becoming closer,and the expected economic growth rate within the region will rebound.