2023年是意大利经济增长放缓和经济政策转型的一年。2022年,通货膨胀率飙升迫使欧洲中央银行大幅加息,加息在逐步压低通胀的同时也抑制了总需求,与此同时财政政策保持适度宽松。到2023年年底,欧盟与意大利的通胀率已大幅下降,使得宏观经济政策具备了逐步稳定的空间,预计随着时间推移,紧缩性货币政策将逐渐放松,而财政政策则会越来越趋于紧缩。此外,自新冠疫情发生以来,意大利政府推出的三项重要财政举措(总投入额达到意大利国内生产总值的7%)的效果仍在全面释放中:(1)疫情发生以来,意大利政府发放给家庭和企业的大量财政补贴主要以储蓄的形式累积了起来,这些储蓄可在未来用于消费和投资;(2)意大利政府通过“超级津贴”计划为房屋翻修活动发放了大规模补贴,但是由于该计划造成过重的财政负担,已被宣布将逐步取消;(3)由欧盟资助的“国家复苏与韧性计划”正在实施,虽然存在一些延误,但是该计划的确为公共投资提供了大规模的资金支持。预计2024年意大利经济将随着上述财政举措影响的进一步释放而逐步复苏。
2023 was a year of slowdown and transition for the Italian economy. In 2022,the spike in inflation forced the European Central Bank to increase interest rates sharply,driving down aggregate demand and,over time,inflation,while fiscal policy remained moderately accommodative. 2023 ended with much lower inflation,allowing policies to stabilize,with monetary to become,over time,less restrictive and fiscal increasingly tight. Moreover,three major policy initiatives undertaken since the pandemic have been in full swing (all pointing to about 7% of GDP):(1) the substantial fiscal support to households and companies has cumulated chiefly in the form of savings,which can potentially be released in the future for consumption and investment,(2) the scheme for the financing of energy-efficient house renovations,i.e. Superbonus,supported construction activity but at a high cost for public finance,and thus it has been phased out,and (3) the massive EU-financed National Recovery and Resilience Plan,has suffered some delays but has increasingly supported public investments. The outlook for 2024 calls for a gradual recovery amid the complete unfolding of these effects.