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特朗普的政权改变政策与伊朗的外交突围(2016~2020年)

  • 作者:赵建明出版日期:2024年07月
  • 报告页数:19 页
  • 报告字数:26180 字所属丛书:
  • 所属图书:伊朗发展报告(2019~2020)
  • 浏览人数:0    下载次数:0

文章摘要

政权改变在时隔数年后再度成为特朗普政府对伊朗的基本政策。污名化伊朗、支持伊朗反对派、实行石油禁运、构筑地区反伊联盟是特朗普政府政权改变的主要措施。美国是要通过“以压促变”让伊朗内部崩溃。尽管力推《反洗钱公约》推进贸易便利化并重提“抵抗经济”,但伊朗并未在行动上将应对美国制裁提高到战略高度,反对美国的国际联盟难以形成,因此伊朗难以真正防范美国的制裁和政权改变政策,伊朗在未来极有可能变得虚弱,伊朗将成为美国重构中东安全格局的牺牲品。

Abstract

Regime change become the principal policy of The Trump’s Adm-inistrations’ to Iran once again after a few decades. Stigmatization of Iran,support of the Iranian opposition,oil embargo,the build-up of regional anti-Iranian coalition are the major measures of the President Trump’s regime change. The United States aimed to seek for the internal collapse by accelerating the pressure to Iran. Although Iranian President Hassan Rohani is pushing Anti-Money Laundering Law to promote trade facilitation and renew the economy,Iran hasn’t raised the resistence against American pressure to the strategic height. While China,Russia and the European Union could not form an effective international alliance against the United States,Therefore,it’s difficult for Iran to truly guard against US sanctions and regime change policy. It will be a high probability event that Iran becomes weak in the future,and Iran will be the victim of the US reconstruction of the Middle East security structure.

作者简介
赵建明:赵建明,上海社会科学院国际问题研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为中东问题。