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“极限施压”与新冠疫情笼罩下的伊朗经济(2019~2020年))

  • 作者:韩建伟出版日期:2024年07月
  • 报告页数:17 页
  • 报告字数:20147 字所属丛书:
  • 所属图书:伊朗发展报告(2019~2020)
  • 浏览人数:0    下载次数:0

文章摘要

2019~2020年,伊朗经济再次遭遇空前严峻的危机。特朗普政府自2018年退出伊核协议之后,对伊朗实施了一系列被称为“极限施压”的制裁,迫使几乎所有的国家放弃与伊朗的经济往来,伊朗石油生产和出口受到沉重打击,进出口贸易大大收缩,通胀居高不下、汇率不断贬值,劳动力就业十分疲软。2020年,伊朗成为中东地区遭受新冠疫情打击最严重的国家,伊朗经济发展覆上更多的阴影,已第三个年头负增长。为应对危机,伊朗政府采取了一些提振经济的措施,本土制造业获得了一定发展,农业自给自足能力稳定增强。但是,即使疫情结束,伊朗经济面临的基本问题——外部制裁与内部结构性障碍,也难以得到适当的解决。伊朗经济的前景仍不乐观。

Abstract

From 2019 to 2020,The Iranian economy faced an unprecedented severe crisis once again. Since the Trump Government withdrew out of the JCPOA in 2018,the US has implemented a series of sanctions on Iran,known as “Extreme Pressure” to force nearly all of countries to give up economic ties with Iran. Iran’s oil production and export has been under the heavy blow,import and export trade shrink greatly,while the inflation is very high,the exchange rate is falling,and the employment is also very weak. In 2020,Iran has been the worst-hit country in the Middle East by COVID-19,casting more shadow over its economic development. Iran’s economy is now in its third year of negative growth. In order to counter the crisis,the Iranian government has taken some measures to boost the economy,which has led to the development of local manufacturing industry and the steady increase of agricultural self-sufficiency. But even if the epidemic ends,the fundamental problems facing Iran’s economy—external sanctions and internal structural obstacles—cannot be properly addressed under the existing regime. The outlook for Iran’s economy is grim.

作者简介
韩建伟:韩建伟,上海外国语大学中东研究所副教授。