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韩国家庭债务风险:形成机制与影响

文章摘要

新冠疫情冲击下韩国家庭部门的高债务给宏观经济平稳运行带来巨大挑战。自2008年以来,韩国家庭债务规模持续扩大且增速快。从结构上看,年轻人和老年人的家庭债务增长快,高收入家庭债务多,低收入家庭偿债负担重。高债务伴随着高风险,韩国家庭债务风险也不断升高,这与经济增速放缓、失业率上升、利率上调以及房价高涨等具有较强相关性。2022年初韩国央行以遏制房地产过热为目标而提高基准利率,高风险借款人的债务偿还压力增大。韩国家庭债务在外部冲击下成为金融不稳定的重要来源之一,这对中国家庭债务问题具有警示意义。

Abstract

Under the impact of COVID-19,the high debt of the ROK’s household sector has posed a huge challenge to the smooth operation of the macro economy. Since 2008,ROK’s household debt has continued to expand and grow rapidly. Structurally,the household debts of the young and the elderly are growing faster,high-income households have more debt,and low-income households have heavier repayment burden. Because high debt comes with high risk,the risk of household debt in ROK is increasingly,which is strongly correlated with slower economic growth,higher unemployment,higher interest rates and house price growth. In early 2022,Bank of ROK raised benchmark interest rates in order to curb the overheating in real estate market,which has exacerbated debt repayment pressure on high-risk borrowers. Household debt in ROK has become one of the important sources of financial instability under external shocks,which has a warning significance for Chinese household debt problems.

作者简介
朴英爱:朴英爱,吉林大学东北亚研究中心教授,博士生导师,主要从事东北亚区域经济合作研究。
李美茹:李美茹,吉林大学东北亚学院博士研究生,主要从事家庭金融研究。
孙弘远:孙弘远,吉林大学商学与管理学院博士研究生,主要从事金融市场研究。