2022年新冠疫情整体呈现缓和态势,印度尼西亚在经济、政治、外交等方面取得突出进展。政治上,佐科政府着力兑现执政承诺,巩固了民意基础,政局总体稳定。各党派积极筹备2024年大选,目前呈现“三足鼎立”之势,最终结果仍充满变数。经济上,佐科政府在严防疫情反弹的同时多措并举稳就业、促发展,国内生产总值年均增速创新高,提振了印尼推进经济结构改革的信心。外交上,佐科政府通过多层次、多轨道并行的全方位外交,持续提升印尼作为中等强国的话语权和影响力。不过,多重危机叠加令全球经济复苏举步维艰,大国博弈和集团对抗使地区安全格局和国际秩序受到冲击,印尼国内出现政治极化、民粹主义激进化趋势,佐科最后任期内既要谋求政绩,又要为接班人铺路,责任重大、困难不小。无论谁最终当选新总统,都将面临极其复杂的国际国内形势,印尼实现2045年建国百年目标任重道远。
In 2022,as the pandemic gradually easing off,Indonesia makes remarkable progress in the fields of politics,economy and diplomacy. Politically,the Jokowi government focuses on fulfilling the commitments,consolidating its popular support,and maintaining political stability. Political parties are actively preparing for the 2024 general election,which currently becomes a tripartite confrontation. Economically,the Jokowi government has taken measures to stabilize employment and promote development. The GDP growth rate has reached a record high,boosting the confidence in economic reform. In terms of diplomacy,the Jokowi government tries to enhance international influence as a middle power through multilateral diplomacy. However,the global economic crisis and the rivalry among major powers have impacted regional security and the international order. Domestically,Indonesia has experienced political polarization and populism. Therefore,in his final term,Jokowi faces a difficult task to seek breakthroughs in governance while paving the way for his successor. No matter who is elected as the new president,he or she will face an extremely complex situation. Before achieving its centennial goal in 2045,Indonesia still has a long way to go.