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2022年印度应对俄乌冲突的策略演变及对印美关系的影响

文章摘要

俄乌冲突爆发后,印度立场相对灵活,其应对策略演变为三个阶段:俄乌冲突爆发之初,印度展现了对俄罗斯的支持立场,这一立场有别于美日印澳和欧洲主要国家;此后在国内亲美力量和西方国家联合施压之下,印度争取了西方国家对印度立场的共情,印度转向相对平衡的立场;随着俄乌冲突持续,冲突各方都在争取印度支持,印度转而高举道德大旗试图调和俄乌问题。印度的应对策略灵活,得益于其在美欧和中俄之间独特的地缘位置,但这种地缘因素也使得印度不得不在美欧和俄罗斯之间保持微妙的平衡,其动因具体表现在印度对俄罗斯的战略依赖、印度需要对冲美国对印政策和对华政策不确定性等方面。印度应对俄乌冲突的策略变化深刻地影响了它与俄罗斯、美国和其他主要国家的关系。印度日益强调相对于美欧的平等地位,注重加强防务,制造自主态势和保持大国间平衡外交。印度应对俄乌冲突的策略深刻影响了印美关系,面对印度坚持自身利益最大化的理性选择,美国开始转变此前一味拉拢和满足印度战略需求的做法,并在多个领域不再掩饰与印度分歧,而印度拒绝加入“北约+”凸显了印美关系发展的限度。这一态势有助于分析和研判“印太”地区秩序的演变趋势。

Abstract

India adopted flexible polices in response to Russia-Ukraine conflict and its evolving strategies can be understood in three stages. Initially after the breakout of the conflict,India demonstrated subtle support to Russia,differentiating itself from those polices of its Quad friends and other Western countries. Then under the pressure of its domestic pro-U.S. forces and the West,India tried to get the West to perceive more empathy in its stands and thus turned to a more balanced response. When the road to the peace was set to be prolonged,India found the interested parties were competing for its support and therefore determined to mediate the conflict by taking the moral ground. The flexibility of Indian polices on the conflict is due to the unique position it held amid competition between the West and the East countries,which in the same reason forced India to keep subtle balance. To sum up,the restrictions came from India’s strategic dependence on Russia,and its need to hedge against the uncertain U.S. polices to India and China. The evolving polices of India profoundly impacts its relations vis-à-vis Russia,U.S. and other major states. India stressed more on getting an equal position with U.S. and major European powers,and enhancing its defence manufacturing capabilities and keeping balanced major power polices. India’s responses to the conflict also impacted its relations with U.S.,when the latter changed its strategies to blindly buy India and unilaterally give strategic favors and therefore decided not to conceal its divergent stands against India on many issue areas. India’s refusal to join NATO+ further displayed the limitations on the growth of India-U.S. relations,the trend of which will help to consider the evolution of Indo-Pacific regional order.

作者简介
谢超:谢超,复旦大学南亚研究中心副研究员,主要研究领域为印度政治与安全、印度外交与大国关系等。