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泛安全化现象与南亚东南亚政治经济形势演进

文章摘要

新冠疫情结束后,包括南亚东南亚次区域在内的中国周边地区地缘格局深入演化,区域局势和地区秩序出现了显著变动与重大调整。不论是从区域整体态势变化角度看,还是从区域内主要行为体政治经济形势演进视角分析,南亚东南亚区域受到了国际格局演化驱动方式和方向的强烈影响,尤其是新冠疫情的演化、美国全球战略调整、俄乌冲突三大因素影响。后疫情时代的美国对华战略更加极端化,中美战略博弈加速了中国周边地区力量格局演变与秩序重组。美国凭借联盟体系化优势对中国进行全方位极限施压,加深了中美矛盾。中美斗争外延至中国和周边国家关系,催生出周边多国的对华机会主义策略与选边站队的行为。未来,中国周边地区泛安全化趋势将进一步凸显,中国经略周边的安全挑战将明显增加。

Abstract

After the end of the COVID-19 pandemic,the geopolitical landscape in China’s surrounding areas,including the South Asia and Southeast Asia subregions,has evolved deeply. Significant changes and major adjustments have emerged in the regional situation and local order. Whether viewed from the perspective of overall regional situation changes or analyzed from the perspective of the political and economic evolution of the main actors within the region,South Asia and Southeast Asia have been strongly influenced by the driving methods and directions of international pattern evolution,especially by three major factors:the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic,the global strategy adjustment of the United States,and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the post-pandemic era,the U.S. strategy towards China has become more extreme,and the China-U.S. rivalry has accelerated the evolution of the power structure and reorganization of order in the regions surrounding China. The U.S.,leveraging its advantages in an alliance system,has exerted all-around extreme pressure on China,deepening the contradictions between China and the U.S. The China-U.S. struggle extends to the relationships between China and its neighboring countries,giving rise to opportunistic strategies towards China and behaviors of choosing sides among multiple neighboring countries. In the future,the trend of generalized security in China’s surrounding areas will become more prominent,and the security challenges faced by China in managing its periphery will significantly increase.

作者简介
叶海林:叶海林,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员,研究方向为南亚地区政治经济与国际关系、中印关系。
吴俊:吴俊,中国社会科学院大学博士研究生,研究方向为印度洋问题与中印关系。
张展毓:张展毓,中国社会科学院大学博士研究生,研究方向为中印关系。