苏格兰“脱英”的可能性是英国脱欧绕不开的话题之一。不论是在2016年英国脱欧公投前后,还是2020年1月底英国正式脱欧前后,苏格兰民族独立议题都是英国政府需要严肃面对的挑战。经历了300年的政治联盟之后,苏格兰为何在21世纪初发出如此强烈的独立呼声?苏格兰民族主义的代表性力量有何诉求?苏格兰民族问题在英国脱欧后将何去何从?本文试图通过讨论以苏格兰民族党为代表的苏格兰民族主义势力自20世纪后半期至今的发展来回答上述问题。本文认为:在系列特定因素的影响下,苏格兰二次独立公投在短期内是不太可能完全实现的目标;苏格兰问题在很大程度上要取决于未来英国与欧盟关系的发展;苏格兰民族党会以独立为由迫使英国政府授予苏格兰更大的自主权,进而为自己争取更多的民意支持。
“Scotexit” is one of the topics haunting Brexit. The issue of Scottish independence is a serious challenge that the British government has to face,both before and after the 2016 Brexit referendum and the official announcement of Brexit at the end of 2019. Why has the force of Scottish independence grown so strong since the beginning of this century after nearly 300 years of political union between England and Scotland?What is the exact appeal of the representative Scottish nationalist force?How will the Scotland issue evolve after Brexit?This article attempts to answer these questions by analyzing the development of Scottish nationalism represented by the Scottish National Party (SNP)during the period from the latter half of last century till now. It is argued that,due to certain political and security concerns,the second Scottish independence referendum is not likely to be fulfilled in the near future and that the evolution of the Scotland issue will,to a great extent,be determined by the future relations between Britain and the EU. Meanwhile,the SNP will use independence as an effective leverage to press the British government to devolve more power to Scotland,thus winning for itself more political support from the Scottish public.